The 2026 Formula 1 season is underway, but you can still trade event contracts on the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship on prediction market sites like Crypto.com. So, how do these prediction market apps price each of the top contenders?
Defending champion Lando Norris is surprisingly not among the frontrunners in the race for the Drivers’ Championship on prediction market apps, with Crypto.com listing George Russell, Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc as top contenders. Lewis Hamilton and Oscar Piastri are unlikely contenders, but it’s still too early to call. Here’s what to know about the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship.
The 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship will be unlike anything we’ve seen yet, all thanks to the overhaul in the technical regulations. Defending champion Lando Norris isn’t even expected to be among the top five racers on top sports prediction markets across various sites like Crypto.com.
As it stands, the top contenders for the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship include George Russell, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri, Lewis Hamilton, and Kimi Antonelli, in descending order of likelihood. The following section analyzes how Crypto.com prices each driver as the new F1 season officially begins.
George Russell is by far the traders’ favorite for the F1 Drivers’ Championship this season, with Max Verstappen following not-so-closely behind. Here’s how they measure up in numbers:
As Mercedes team leader, George Russell is the man to beat for the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, thanks to his strong showings in the preseason and Mercedes’ mileage advantage.
Mercedes seems like the most prepared team in light of the new technical regulations. With the team built around Russell, he’s in pole position to capitalize on this advantage, taking home the Championship. He’s appropriately priced on Crypto.com, with the prediction market site scoring his implied probability at 44%, nearly twice what was afforded the nearest contender.
Max Verstappen is a fast and experienced driver who trailed Landon Norris by just 2 points last season, putting him squarely among the favorites for this year’s 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, with an implied probability of 22%.
His only disadvantage could come from Red Bull’s new engine, which competitors like Russell have noted as “suspiciously slow” in the preseason races. With allegations of sandbagging, Max Verstappen could burst onto the scene with a fiery lead on competitors or underperform expectations, depending on the true state of the Red Bull engine.
Ferrari has invested time, and possibly their 2025 season, into the car Charles Leclerc would be driving this year, in light of the new Formula 1 regulations. The new SF-26 had an outstanding pre-season testing in Bahrain, recording the fastest overall lap time, making Ferrari, and consequently, Charles Leclerc, very ready for the new season.
However, the advantage doesn’t count for much, as even Leclerc doesn’t think the car matches Mercedes under high-fuel loads. Charles Leclerc is currently at 15% to win the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, just behind Russell and Verstappen.
Crypto.com lists several other contenders for the championship, including Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Antonelli, and Oscar Piastri. The implied probabilities are meager for now, but the numbers could jump wildly if any of them start strong in their first few races.
The graphs have remained consistent since January, except that George Russell moved above Max Verstappen towards the end of the month, following his strong showing in preseason testing. Here’s how the movements have been ahead of the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship:
George Russell started the year second among the top contenders, but quickly moved ahead of Max Verstappen after recording excellent lap times in many preseason races and tests. If it turns out Red Bull isn’t deliberately nerfing its engine, George Russell’s early lead might expand, pricing him higher than the current 44¢.
While uncertainties regarding Red Bull’s new engine have dropped Max Verstappen from the leading contender spot, he’s still a top contender, only trailing George Russell, with Crypto.com pricing his victory at 23¢.
The 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship is still too early to call. With the regulations overhaul and the teams redesigning their engines and cars, we’ll likely see results all over the place as teams and drivers try to adjust.
Beyond the major contenders, we have a few other strong names in this year’s F1 season: Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Antonelli, and Oscar Piastri, all with potential to walk home with the Championship.
There isn’t much we can learn from recent winners, as the overhauled F1 regulations will likely lead to wild results from day one. Lando Norris, for example, is the defending champion, but isn’t even in the race to win, according to traders on top prediction market sites like Crypto.com.
We recommend evaluating individual drivers’ performance based on adaptability and preseason performance, rather than relying on historical data that would likely be irrelevant under the new rules.
Crypto.com is selling contracts on each of the drivers at this year’s Formula 1, with names like Russell and Verstappen as favorites. Here’s how to trade the “F1 Drivers’ Champion 2026” market on Crypto.com:
This table shows the implied probabilities and contract prices for the top F1 Drivers’ Championship markets:
| Driver | Implied Probability | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russel | 44% | 44¢ | 59¢ |
| Max Verstappen | 23% | 23¢ | 81¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 15% | 15¢ | 88¢ |
This table reflects the prices retrieved from Crypto.com. Note that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts may not always add up to $1 due to discrepancies in bid and ask prices and order book liquidity. Current contract prices may not match the figures in this table, as prices and implied probabilities fluctuate rapidly after each race.
The 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship remains too early to call, but traders on prediction market sites seem to align with George Russell, Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc from early numbers.
George Russell is the best from the preseason numbers, Max Verstappen is a stable contender with an all-new engine, and Charles Leclerc is the face of the trusted Ferrari team, alongside seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton. You can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on each of the drivers on Crypto.com today; just sign up using our banners and start trading.
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