The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series has gotten off to a great start with legendary driver Denny Hamlin leads the points race as he seeks his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series season title. Tyler Reddick is still in the picture, though, and is only 44 points behind heading into Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia.
The race on Sunday night will include 260 laps around the oval, totaling approximately 400 miles. Fans who buy tickets to watch the race in person will be treated to seasonally warm temperatures that are expected to make the track slick as a result of decreased tire grip. For prediction market forecasters, there are two main markets for this weekend.
NASCAR has brought back “The Chase” scoring format, which means there will be a soft reset of point totals in late August, following Race 26. The top 16 drivers in the points race will receive anywhere between 2,000 to 2,100 points as they begin “The Chase” for the championship that will be determined on November 8th.
Due to the points reset, we think Denny Hamlin’s 37¢ per-contract price, to lead all competitors once the November 8th race at Homestead-Miami Speedway has concluded, is excessive. It’s not that we’re not considering Hamlin to be the overall favorite; we’re simply trading on the notion that his odds are somewhat below 37%.
With $3.2 million in total Kalshi trading volume for the November 8th NASCAR Cup Series winner, we’re going with Tyler Reddick at 20¢ per contract. There’s still plenty of time to get your prediction in, as the points don’t hit their soft reset until August 29th, following the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
If you’re looking to get in on the action for this Sunday, Denny Hamlin is a solid pickup at 9 cents to win the Quaker State 400 race.
The Quaker State 400 race this Sunday will be under the lights at EchoPark Speedway. The 7:00pm local time start means that the 40,000 fans who are expected to file into the grandstands will be treated to (relatively) mild temperatures around 80 degrees.
However, the oval itself will remain slick. The steep, 28-degree banking in the turns will force intense drafting and pack racing, with cars frequently separated by mere inches during the high speed race. The first place finisher will receive 40 points toward the NASCAR Cup Series championship, with second place obtaining 35 points, and the last place finisher receiving just 1 point.
General admission prices are mostly around $100 for adults, with luxury seating going for over $2,000 depending on what’s included in the package. If you won’t be able to attend the race in person, you can watch the race on TNT Sports or stream it live with a premium HBO Max subscription.
We highly recommend buying a few “no” contracts on Denny Hamlin to win the championship on November 8th, as long as those contracts cost less than 67 cents. The format of “The Chase,” which begins after August 29th, will erase all but 25 points from any lead that Hamlin enjoys after the regular season has concluded.
Once Hamlin’s “yes” option to win his first-ever season championship drops below 30 cents per contract, we’ll switch as long as he’s still in first place in the overall standings. The Quaker State 400 race starts this Sunday at 7:00pm local time in Georgia. The final race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series will take place on November 8th at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
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