Argentina legend Lionel Messi has become the frontrunner to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot award after France’s shocking 2-0 semifinal defeat against Spain on Tuesday.
This afternoon, Messi will have a chance to surpass Kylian Mbappé as his team takes on England for the right to advance to the July 19th World Cup Final at New Jersey New York Stadium.
Here are the current standings for the Golden Boot award as we prepare for today’s semifinal matchup between England and Argentina.
Our Polymarket prediction market pick right now is Lionel Messi at 50.8 cents per contract to win the Golden Boot award. However, that “yes” option is heavily reliant on the icon’s performance in today’s semifinal match against England. If Messi fails to score a goal today and fails to pick up at least one assist, you can expect the odds between him and Mbappé to instantly flip (unless either Harry Kane or Jude Bellingham can score two or more goals for England).
The main point to keep in mind here is that Kylian Mbappé will still be on the field for the third-place match. Any goals he scores during that match will count for the Golden Boot award (more on this in the next section).
Although France has already been eliminated from championship contention, it still has a third-place match to play against either England or Argentina. This means that Kylian Mbappé can still add to his total. Yes, Lionel Messi is now reasonably listed as the relative favorite to win the Golden Boot award, but he’ll need at least one goal or two assists later today to take sole possession of first place.
Depending on the final goal tally for each Golden Boot contender, the tie-breaking scenario of total assists could come into play once the final World Cup match has been played on July 19th. If the top two contenders are tied in both goals and assists, the award will go to the player who logged the fewest total minutes over the tournament’s duration. This is because all of the current top four contenders are guaranteed to play the exact same number of total 2026 World Cup matches.
This market is heading north of $60 million today as Polymarket forecasters update their predictions in real time.
France was shut out by Spain 2-0 in Tuesday’s semifinal, so Mbappé wasn’t able to add to his total goal count. That immediately sent contract prices downward for France’s star player, as he is no longer the favorite to have the most total goals for the tournament.
Polymarket traders will want to keep a close eye on the Golden Boot winner’s market throughout this afternoon’s Argentina vs. England match. Early goals by Messi, Kane, or Bellingham will have an immediate, in-game impact on the odds and contract prices for each remaining contender.
Weather conditions won’t slow either player down this afternoon in Atlanta due to the retractable roof that will make the region’s thunderstorms irrelevant in terms of the on-field competition. The full match will be broadcast by FOX, with kickoff scheduled for 3:00pm Eastern Time.
Loading …
