Despite the 2028 US presidential general election being more than two years away, prediction market politics traders on Kalshi have already placed more than $53 million in trades on who will be the nation’s next leader.
As we approach the end of July 2026, there are three clear frontrunners: Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, and California Governor Gavin Newsom. However, none of these three candidates carries a per-contract price that reaches 20 cents.
Handicapping the next US president, more than two years before the general election occurs, is a difficult pursuit that’s laden with anticipated yet unforeseen future events that could heavily influence the odds between now and then. Something that causes one candidate’s price to rise or fall could be completely irrelevant by the time voters head to the polls in November 2028.
When it comes down to it, we’re bearish on all three of the current frontrunners, even though their per-contract prices are below 20 cents. We feel that MAGA voters, who turned out in droves for the 2024 US presidential election, are equally likely to cast their vote for Donald Trump, Jr. or Tucker Carlson (were they to formally enter the race) as for one of the established market leaders during the 2028 Republican primaries.
On the Democratic side, we’re likewise convinced that Gavin Newsom’s apparent “leader” status will get wiped away in the party’s primary elections in two years. If you’re reading along and deciding based on our own analysis, we recommend going with the “no” option for Vance, Rubio, and Newsom to win the presidency in November 2028.
The economy and immigration enforcement (either for or against) remain atop the list of voter concerns for the second part of 2026, with the Middle East conflict likewise making its way into daily headlines. Which candidate, precisely, will voters in 2028 feel will address their concerns most earnestly? Will military conflict still be a headline story in two years?
These are pressing questions that would increase or decrease the per-contract prices of individual candidates if we possessed those answers in the “here and now.” How will media influencers cover each candidate? It remains to be seen if all the candidates currently listed in the Kalshi winner’s market for the 2028 US presidential election winner will even enter the race.
Since March of this year, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio have switched places multiple times within the Kalshi winner’s market. Earlier this week, Vance overtook Rubio (once again) for the top spot, but neither potential 2028 presidential hopeful has dominated the other in terms of prediction market price.
On the bargain price end, Kalshi forecasters deem a third term for Donald Trump, Sr. to be more likely than a 2028 presidential election victory by fierce rival Mark Kelly. The 2028 US presidential election winner result is up in the air and is likely to stay that way until 2028.
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