Alaska voters head to the polls tomorrow to decide which four candidates for governor advance to the November general election. In the lead-up to tomorrow’s primary, prediction market traders are confident they have the top three candidates correctly pegged.
However, the market for who the fourth candidate to advance will be is more contentious. The state has a unique primary election format that allows multiple parties to participate in primaries, so it’s entirely possible that the general election ballot for Alaska governor will contain two names from each major party.
The two Democratic frontrunners to advance tomorrow in Alaska’s primary election for governor are trading at relatively high prices. Those prices are justified, in our view. Tom Begich has a contract price of 98.1 cents, while progressive candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is available for 80 cents.
On the Republican side, Bernadette Wilson is priced at 90 cents to reach the November general election. However, Kalshi traders have different views on who the fourth candidate to advance tomorrow will be. Dave Bronson is priced at 55¢, followed by Treg Taylor, Click Bishop, and nonpartisan hopeful Bill Walker.
For tomorrow’s Alaska governor primary, we’re going with the safest advancement pick with the most value, which is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. His 80-cent contract price will still bring in a decent margin as long as he finishes in the top four.
It’s very important that traders are aware that tomorrow’s primary election for governor in Alaska will not determine a “winner” in the traditional sense. The related Kalshi markets will resolve as “yes” as long as the selected candidate advances to the general election.
Candidates who place in the top four tomorrow (in terms of total votes received) will move on. The remaining candidates will be eliminated from the general election ballot. The overall “winner” for Alaska governor is a separate market that pertains to the November general election. Tomorrow’s election is a primary that features Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
One more note: tomorrow’s primary election allows participants to cast their votes for one candidate only. This is different from the general election for Alaska governor, which will incorporate a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to enter preference numbers for each remaining candidate.
Republican Dave Bronson has moved from 37 cents to 55 cents per contract in the last month. Bronson has considerable support in Anchorage from conservatives and has forged ahead of fellow Republicans Click Bishop and Treg Taylor for the fourth advancement spot in the past 30 days.
If recent primary elections are any indicator, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins may surge in price during the live-forecasting phase on Kalshi. His progressive policies make him extremely popular with a distinct set of voters who turn out in droves to support candidates who label themselves as “progressive.”
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