The Premier League season is only a few weeks away, and we’re in for another nail-biting title fight. Major signings in the summer transfer window have given us a clearer picture of which teams will be in the hunt for one of the sport’s most prestigious trophies.
More big moves are likely coming for the top clubs, but it’s still a great time to look at the Premier League winner market at Kalshi.
Using prediction markets for the winner of the Premier League title is often far simpler than doing so on major US sports. Only four teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Liverpool – have won the league crown over the last 10 years.
Everyone knows about Leicester City’s miraculous run to the Premier League title in the 2015/16 season. But that was an incredible exception to an iron-clad rule.
Here, we’ll examine the five top teams to win the Premier League title at Kalshi. For context, 13 teams have less than 1% chance, while two teams – Tottenham and Aston Villa – sit only marginally better at 4% and 3%, respectively.
Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for another Premier League title last season, getting over the hump after three straight finishes as the runners-up. With the monkey finally off Arsenal’s back, Kalshi sees them as the clear favorites to win the Premier League again. This is despite Arsenal missing out on several top targets this summer as it looked to improve its attack.
First, Chelsea swooped in and signed Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa. Arsenal decided to swing for the fences, eyeing disgruntled Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior. But Vinicius Junior decided to sign a new contract with the Spanish giants on Thursday. It was a major blow to Arsenal, despite the blockbuster signing always seeming unlikely.
The north London side winning the Premier League had reached 41¢ at Kalshi amid the Vinicius Junior rumors and after bringing in Newcastle captain Bruno Guimaraes to boost what was already a very strong midfield into a world-class unit. Arsenal “yes” contracts dipped a little to 38¢ after the news about the Brazilian winger, highlighting the strength of the team and the long-shot chances of signing him from Real Madrid.
Guimaraes’ arrival is still a major one, and will give Mikel Arteta even more flexibility in the center of the pitch. He’s one of the world’s most complete midfielders. Arsenal was overly reliant on Declan Rice last season, and easing his workload should be a major benefit in a long title race.
Signing a left winger should still be a priority for Arsenal, but even if they don’t add one, they’re still clearly the best team in the league. The only massive concern is the health of center-back William Saliba, who will miss the start of the season due to a back injury suffered at the World Cup.
It’s a new era for Manchester City, but they’re still firmly in the second spot at Kalshi, with “yes” contracts on another Premier League title sitting at 24¢. Pep Guardiola, the team’s legendary manager and architect of six Premier League titles, is gone.
Enzo Maresca has been chosen as the successor. He takes over an extremely talented squad and should know how to keep the ball rolling after spending time working under Guardiola. But Guardiola might not be the only Man City legend to depart this summer.
Fresh off a World Cup and Golden Ball win, star midfielder Rodri is reportedly contemplating a move to Spain with either Barcelona or Real Madrid. If Rodri departs, Man City already has his replacement in Elliot Anderson, who joined for a club-record £116 million ($155 million) in July. The team is rumored to also be eyeing Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez.
Man City, of course, also still has Erling Haaland, who’s coming off an amazing World Cup campaign himself. Still, the spectre of a major punishment for the club for over 115 violations of financial rules hangs over the club. We’ve been waiting years for a decision, and it’s possible it’ll come this season. A points deduction is a possibility, which has to be taken into account when backing the club to win the Premier League this upcoming season.
Chelsea currently sits tied for third with Liverpool and just ahead of Manchester United, despite finishing a massively disappointing 10th last season. Xabi Alonso is the man tasked with guiding Chelsea to its first Premier League title in nearly 10 years. The former Real Madrid manager should be an ideal fit to mold Chelsea’s standout young players.
As we mentioned, Chelsea’s big signing of the summer was Rogers for £117 million ($157 million). Rogers can play as a dynamic No. 10 or shift out to the left side of Chelsea’s attack. His versatility will be key for Alonso’s system. With Rogers, Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro, Chelsea have the firepower to challenge for the title.
The team attempted to quell fears about its squad’s lack of experience by bringing in veterans Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson. The moves are a major shift away from Chelsea’s youth-only approach to transfers. Welbeck did score 13 Premier League goals for Brighton last season, but Henderson will likely contribute more in the dressing room than on the pitch.
Still, Chelsea’s upside is easy to see. While no European football is embarrassing for a club of Chelsea’s standing, it allows them to focus on the league. It might be a year too early to truly contend for the Premier League crown, but without a truly dominant team to dethrone, Chelsea are an intriguing bet.
Liverpool was unable to defend its title last season, falling all the way back to fifth position. The result cost Arne Slot his job, with Andoni Iraola pegged as the man to return the Merseyside club to the top of the Premier League. He guided Bournemouth to a sixth-placed finish last season, but this is a massive step up.
Iraola’s first task will be getting the best out of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. Liverpool broke the bank to bring the two attackers in last season, but neither lived up to expectations. Isak should be fully healthy, and Wirtz is coming off a strong World Cup. With legendary forward Mo Salah departing the club, Liverpool’s title chances might come down to how well Wirtz and Isak can step up.
Liverpool haven’t made one big transfer splash like others on this list, but that could change. The club has been pursuing PSG winger Bradley Barcola, though his massive price tag seems to be an issue. Liverpool has already bolstered the position with the signing of Víctor Muñoz. Meanwhile, Jeremy Jacquet has been brought in to boost the defense.
There are certainly significant question marks about Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League. But they did so with a new manager just two years ago, and they have strong starting talent, though overall depth is a concern. If Liverpool signs Barcola, now might be the time to buy their chances.
Can Manchester United finally end their long title drought? It’s been 13 long seasons since Manchester United, the most successful Premier League club ever, last lifted the trophy. Michael Carrick guided the team to third last season after finishing 8th and 15th the previous two years. It earned him the permanent job, but United were still 14 points behind winners Arsenal.
How to bridge that gap was the question of the summer for Carrick. Longtime midfielder Casemiro departed for the MLS, but United have reinforced the unit with Andrey Santos from Chelsea and Youri Tielemans from Aston Villa. Bruno Fernandes, the reigning Premier League Player of the Year, continues to be the key man for the club.
United’s depth will be stretched this season after the team earned a return to the Champions League. Carrick’s third-place finish was impressive, but it came without needing to balance the pressure of European football. The club will need its incoming signings to have an immediate impact, just as they did last year. Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, and Benjamin Sesko combined for 32 Premier League goals in their debut seasons.
Like Liverpool and Chelsea, it might be a year or two too early for Manchester United to truly threaten Arsenal and Manchester City. Still, the club has made shrewd moves this summer, even if fans hoped they’d splash some more cash.
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