Arsenal’s League Cup final defeat at Wembley this past weekend hasn’t changed how they’re being viewed in the Champions League market. They lost 2-0 to Manchester City on March 22, but traders on Kalshi still have them as the favorites, with Yes contracts now trading at 27¢.
Although Arsenal is favored to win at a 27% chance, Bayern Munich aren’t far behind with a 22% chance. Sports analysts are also backing Bayern to win the Champions League. The market has thus far drawn over $10 million in trading volume on Kalshi. Here’s how the top teams probability of winning is viewed at the moment.
Arsenal have never won the Champions League, but could this be the turning point? The market thinks so, with Arsenal currently trading at 27¢, which means they’re viewed to have a 27% probability of winning the Champions League this time. This backing isn’t surprising based on what they’ve done in Europe so far. They went through the group stage unbeaten and have moved into the knockout rounds without too many issues, which is why traders are unshaken despite the Wembley loss.
Bayern Munich come as a close second at 22%, and they’re seen as the most balanced squad. And why not? Thomas Tuchel’s team just had a rather impressive win over Atalanta on March 18, one of the most dominant results of the knockout stage. Bayern are used to these knockout games and rarely struggle to get through them, which is why they’re still seen as top contenders. A good number of sports analysts believe they could go all the way this season, but that hasn’t yet surpassed Arsenal’s leading 27% probability of winning on prediction markets.
Event contracts for Barcelona winning the Champions League are priced at 17, giving them a 17% probability of success. That means the market believes they’re in with a chance. Barcelona is one of the top attacking teams for this season, and their 7-2 win over Newcastle at Camp Nou on March 18 shows how good they are. However, progress means going through Arsenal and Bayern Munich.
When looking at the latest prices on Kalshi, Arsenal are clear favorites at 27%. Bayern Munich follows at 22%, showing just how close they are at the top. Barcelona is next with a 17% implied probability of winning, while PSG and Real Madrid are a bit behind at 13% and 11%.
There are still many matches to be played, so these positions can change as users make trading decisions based on results from the knockout rounds.
If you want to trade contracts on who will win the Champions League at Kalshi, you can follow these steps:
Here’s a table that shows the current implied probabilities for this market. Just remember that this is constantly changing as traders purchase Yes or No contracts.
| Team | Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 27% | 27¢ | 74¢ |
| Bayern Munich | 22% | 22¢ | 79¢ |
| Barcelona | 17% | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| PSG | 13% | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| Real Madrid | 11% | 11¢ | 90¢ |
You can also click the Kalshi banners on this page to trade on Who will win the Champions League and other sports prediction markets.
Right now, traders on Kalshi are predicting Arsenal have the highest probability of winning the Champions League, even after the recent League Cup defeat. But Bayern Munich are close behind, along with Barcelona. The knockout rounds are yet to be played, and it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
If you want to trade event contracts on who this season’s winners will be, you can use the links on this page to visit Kalshi and get started with this market along with other events across sports, politics, economics and more.
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