Tomorrow, voters throughout the country will head to the polls to vote for their preferred Senator in an election that will determine the congressional balance of power for the next two years. Just 24 hours before polls open, individual Senate races are on pace to experience more than $100 million in total volume on prediction market apps like Kalshi.
Can the Democrats pull off a coup in Texas, led by the surging James Talarico, or will Attorney General Ken Paxton become the next Senator for the Lone Star State? Will Abdul El-Sayed hold on to defeat Mike Rogers despite his recent split with Haley Stevens in Michigan? Let’s take a look at the most contentious races ahead of tomorrow’s midterms.
Since the Republicans currently hold the White House, the GOP only needs to retain 50 seats (out of 100) to continue its control of Congress’ upper chamber. The Democrats must have 51 total seats to overcome that slight (albeit important) advantage.
As of Monday morning, the Kalshi Elections Hub is showing significant momentum in favor of Democrats in key Senate races including Texas, Michigan, and Alaska. Our picks for the most competitive Senate races are listed below. Note that the contract prices are provided to reflect the prices we believe provide value to traders, even if those prices are no longer available.
Texas Senator John Cornyn was defeated in the GOP primary election earlier this year by sitting Attorney General Ken Paxton. By all accounts, Cornyn’s undoing was a highly public endorsement of Paxton by President Donald Trump. If James Talarico is able to pull off the victory in the Lone Star State, Trump’s decision to cast Cornyn away could prove to be the determining factor in Democrats regaining full control of Congress.
Several Republicans, including Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, expressed their disappointment back in May when POTUS essentially doomed Cornyn’s bid for a fifth term in the US Senate. Many political pundits have stated that John Cornyn would have easily won reelection and that the threat of a James Talarico victory wouldn’t have existed if Trump hadn’t supported Paxton in the Republican primary.
Forecasters who are closely watching political prediction markets will have already noticed that the Texas Senate race has attracted roughly $75 million in trades alone, even before Election Day arrives tomorrow. The second most popular Senate race is in Michigan, where Kalshi traders have poured in $25 million in trades ahead of the polls opening tomorrow.
If past trading volume trends are any indication, the Michigan and Maine Senate races could each see more than $100 million in trades on Kalshi before the results are confirmed later this week. The Texas race could eventually pull in a quarter-billion in trades depending on how competitive the race appears once results start flowing out into the public.
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