The 2026 college football season is nearly here, and with it, the race for the Heisman Trophy. The award given to the best player in college football is among the most hotly debated in all of sports.
Quarterbacks almost always dominate the conversation, and it’s expected to be no different for this upcoming season, with a host of star quarterbacks leading the Heisman Trophy market at Kalshi.
When you look at Heisman Trophy candidates at prediction markets, you’ll find a handful of top passers leading the way. In fact, no non-QB cracks the top 10, with Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith’s “yes” contract the highest at 4¢.
Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 21 Heismans, so going with a passer is always a safer option. Still, keep in mind that, since 2014, only once has a preseason favorite ultimately earned the award.
Let’s get into the top five candidates, starting with the leader.
Coming off an impressive first season as a redshirt freshman, Carr has earned the spot as the Heisman Trophy favorite. The quarterback looked poised and was efficient beyond his years in 2025. Carr threw for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, and his numbers are expected to greatly improve in 2026.
Notre Dame was a run-first team thanks to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but both running backs are gone now. As a result, Carr will be the driving force of the offense. Big-time late-season matchups against BYU and Miami will give Carr the national stage to make his case. But Notre Dame’s schedule is otherwise weaker than the teams of the other candidates, so Carr should be primed to pile up Heisman-worthy stats.
Manning entered last season as the clear Heisman favorite, but he fell short of expectations, especially during a rough start. But the Texas quarterback found his feet as the campaign went on, and by the end, he was playing the type of football most predicted. Manning threw for 14 touchdowns and ran for another five over the final six games. This included a dominant four-touchdown performance against Michigan.
Standing in Manning’s way is a tough schedule that features games against Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, and Texas A&M. Texas has the talent to be a zero- or one-loss team, but it’ll be tough. On the other hand, Manning will have the chance to earn many marquee wins. The young quarterback has the playmaking skills that are often required to earn a Heisman, while the addition of receiver Cam Coleman is a major boost to Texas’ passing game.
After a standout season at Duke in 2025, Mensah made the jump to Miami. Only Heisman winner and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza had more touchdowns than Mensah with 34, and he also finished second in passing yards with 3,973. Those stats are already worthy of Heisman consideration, and now Mensah will get to play with a much better supporting group.
Malachi Toney is one of the best receivers in the country, Mark Fletcher is coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season, and former leading Duke wideout Cooper Barkate followed Mensah to Miami. In short, the Hurricanes will have one of the most electric offenses. There are questions on the offensive line, and Miami will need some big wins over the likes of Notre Dame. But Mensah should be a strong Heisman contender all season long.
Sayin was fourth in Heisman voting last season, and is well set up to jump to the head of the race this season. Ohio State was a behemoth in 2025, going undefeated in the regular season before a Big Ten Championship loss to Indiana and a shock playoff exit against Miami. Sayin was a big reason for the team’s success, finishing fourth in touchdown passes (32) and first in completion percentage (77%).
Ohio State will be a contender once again in 2026, setting Sayin up for big national recognition. A tough schedule means Sayin will need to step up in clutch moments, with fewer blowout wins likely for Ohio State. The quarterback will also get to throw to arguably the best player in college football, Jeremiah Smith. All in all, Sayin could be a smart bet for the award at 7¢.
Rounding out the top five is Chambliss, one of the most exciting players in all of college football. He took no time getting up to speed after transferring to Ole Miss from Ferris State, finishing 2025 with 3,977 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and just three picks. Chambliss was also a major threat as a rusher, adding 527 yards and eight scores on the ground. The quarterback powered Ole Miss to a surprising CFP semifinal appearance.
Chambliss will have to overcome some significant upheaval around the Rebels program if he’s to be a Heisman contender. Pete Golding has replaced Lane Kiffin as head coach, and he’ll be working with a new-look receiver room. Meanwhile, the presence of running back Kewan Lacy, coming off a 1,567-yard campaign, means Chambliss could take a backseat in some games.
Loading …
