The end of the English Premier League season is in sight and the league table has resolved into a race between Arsenal and Manchester City. Both sides are evenly locked at prediction market Kalshi with a 50% chance of victory.
The eventual Premier League Champions will be decided over the course of the next five games, with only three points and a slim goal difference margin separating the Gunners and the Sky Blues as things stand right now. Let’s take a closer look at how these games may play out and what’s needed to lift the trophy.
While it is theoretically possible for Manchester United to win the Premier League, the race for the title has effectively boiled down to two teams: Arsenal and Manchester City. At the moment, the market for this event at Kalshi is locked in a dead heat at 50% each; let’s take a closer look at each team’s chances:
The Gunners are currently sitting in top spot on the Premier League table, with 73 points from 34 games. They have a current goal difference of 38, which is just one more than Manchester City.
Manchester City are second on the Premier League table, with 70 points from 33 games. Crucially, this means they are a game in hand compared to Arsenal, which could impact the final standings.
If both Arsenal and Man City win all of their remaining matches, the overall winner could come down to goal difference. But it’s not purely about the numbers; there are a few other factors that could also impact the rest of the season and the eventual winner.
Arsenal have four matches remaining in the Premier League season, and would expect to beat all of the teams they’ll face. Here’s a quick overview of each match and the result from the first leg fixture:
| Match | Date | Most recent EPL result |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Fulham | Saturday 2nd May | Arsenal 1-0 Fulham |
| Arsenal vs West Ham | Sunday 10th May | Arsenal 2-0 West Ham |
| Arsenal vs Burnley | Monday 18th May | Arsenal 2-0 Burnley |
| Arsenal vs Crystal Palace | Sunday 24th May | Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace |
Manchester City have five matches left in their season, including a rescheduled match against Crystal Palace. This rescheduling has left the Sky Blues with a bottleneck of three games in seven days across the FA Cup and EPL, an arduous schedule, which includes significant travel too. Fans fear this could have an impact on their performance and chances of winning the EPL title. Arsenal, by contrast, have several days off between their remaining fixtures.
Here’s an overview of the matches remaining for the Sky Blues and the results of their first fixture against these teams:
| Match | Date | Most recent EPL result |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City vs Everton | 4th May 2026 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton |
| Manchester City vs Brentford | 9th May 2026 | Manchester City 1-0 Brentford |
| Manchester City vs Crystal Palace | 13th May 2026 | Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace |
| Manchester City vs Bournemouth | 19th May 2026 | Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth |
| Manchester City vs Aston Villa | 24th May 2026 | Manchester City 0-1 Aston Villa |
Goals scored could be the key factor in determining who clinches the EPL title this season, which could favor Manchester City. Erling Haaland is the top scorer in the Premier League this season, with 24 goals, and Antoine Semenyo is in third place, with 15 goals. We have to look down the table to seventh place before we spot an Arsenal player (Viktor Gyökeres with 12 goals).
Arsenal have been at the top of the table for the majority of the EPL season, and Grace had correspondingly high numbers at Kalshi. They reached a peak of 88% in late March but have settled now to 50%.
Following impressive wins over Chelsea and Arsenal, Manchester City moved into second place on the Premier League table in late April.
After a few lacklustre performances, including a 2-1 loss to Bournemouth and a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City, Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League have slipped. However, a recent win over Newcastle, although the Magpies were not at their strongest, seems to have galvanised the Gunners to renew their efforts for the EPL crown.
At this point in the season, it’s very unlikely that another team would be able to secure the points needed to reach the top spot. It is technically possible for third placed Manchester United to top the table, but this would rely on Arsenal and Manchester City losing all of their remaining fixtures.
At prediction market apps, such as Kalshi, Arsenal and Manchester City are very much the only two possibilities.
If you want to make a trade on this event, Kalshi is a great option, with easy usability, especially for new members. Here are the steps you’ll need to follow to make your trade:
At the moment, Arsenal and Manchester City are pretty much dead even at Kalshi. These are the chances of winning for each time as things stand right now, and the Yes and No contract prices:
| Team | Chance of winning the EPL | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 50% | $0.51 | $0.50 |
| Arsenal | 50% | $0.50 | $0.51 |
The race for the EPL title is coming down to the wire and, with only a few weeks left, it’s a race between Arsenal and Manchester City. Every goal counts towards the all important goal difference, which, ultimately, could be what decides the winner.
At leading prediction market Kalshi, both teams are even, but we could see the numbers shift as we enter the final games of the season. Use our links to go to Kalshi now to make your trade on this market.
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