Kimi Antonelli leads teammate George Russell going into the Miami Grand Prix.
Russell currently has a 45% chance of winning the F1 Drivers Championship 2026.
Russell’s chances of winning have decreased significantly while Antonelli’s have improved.
Following the cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian races Prix, the next Formula One Grand Prix will be held in Miami on May 3rd. With fierce LA heat and a dramatic track, this race promises lots of excitement.
At prediction market Kalshi, George Russell is in the lead for the Drivers Championship title but has dropped 14 points since the end of March to rest at 45%. Meanwhile, his Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli has gained around 17 points to reach a 35% chance of being the Championship winner. Want to make your own F1 pick at Kalshi? Here’s how.
Following a dominant early season performances, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have emerged as clear favorites to win the Drivers Championship in 2026.
However, this year sees the largest F1 grid in a decade, with 22 drivers across 11 teams. Several of these drivers, such as Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have made it to the top on Kalshi’s list of possible Championship winners, along with Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. The other drivers sit below this with an implied probability of winning at roughly 1%.
We’ve seen considerable movement in this market since the end of the last race. Here’s how Kalshi views each driver currently:
Despite falling by 14 points over the past day or two, George Russell remains the favorite to win the overall Drivers Championship this year. He started the season strong, with a win in Australia, and is backed by arguably the most technically dominant maker this year, Mercedes-AMG Petronas.
Russell’s teammate at Mercedes, Kimi Antonelli has been building recent momentum with multiple wins. That includes victory in the Japanese Grand Prix on March 29th while Russell finished fourth.
While Antonelli undoubtedly deployed great skill in winning the Japanese Grand Prix, it’s important to note that this was no standard race. Brit Oliver Bearman endured a dramatic crash but luckily only received minor injuries. While the safety car patrolled the track, Antonelli was able to use the opportunity for a Pit Stop, an advantage which he exploited to snatch the win.
Antonelli has jumped ahead in the F1 standings by nine points. His most recent victory caused a major spike in his numbers at Kalshi and saw Russell’s chances of winning the Championship take a tumble.
This season could be the perfect time for a shock win. New teams, Audi and Cadillac, add more instability to the market, while major new rule changes may impact the established order.
There have only been three races completed this year so far so it’s still early days. But we can draw a few conclusions based on recent results:
This is Russell’s seventh Formula One season, but Antonelli’s first. Both race for Mercedes-AMG Petronas but we haven’t had any directive from the team leaders yet about which driver will be encouraged forward and who might take a back seat.
At this early point in the season, Mercedes-AMG Petronas has established a dominant position but this is unlikely to last for long. It’s vital for Russell and Antonelli to gather points now while they can, and we could see their dominant positions drop as other teams make adjustments.
Kalshi is one of our favorite prediction market apps and offers future picks on the F1 Drivers Championship market. Here’s how to buy event contracts on this market and related F1 picks:
In the table below, we’ve detailed the current trading prices and implied probabilities across this contract on Kalshi. Be aware that these are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate significantly:
| Driver | Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | 45% | $0.45 | $0.56 |
| Kimi Antonelli | 33% | $0.34 | $0.67 |
| Charles Leclerc | 6% | $0.06 | $0.95 |
| Oscar Piastri | 5% | $0.05 | $0.96 |
| Lando Norris | 4% | $0.03 | $0.98 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 3% | $0.03 | $0.98 |
| Max Verstappen | 3% | $0.03 | $0.98 |
We’re only three races into the 2026 Formula One season so it’s still too early to pick an overall winner. Antonelli is currently top of the table and clear by nine points but Russell is way out ahead at prediction markets like Kalshi, although his numbers have seen a big drop since the end of the last race.
To make your own pick on this market, you can visit Kalshi and buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on each driver. Just use our links to head straight over there.
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