F1 is finally back after a long summer break, and the official second half of the season kicks off with the Dutch Grand Prix. It will be the final Grand Prix at Zandvoort before the race exits the calendar for 2027 and beyond.
But Dutch fans will have plenty of action to enjoy for the farewell Grand Prix, as it is the fifth F1 sprint weekend of the season. So, teams will only have one practice session to get up to speed before sprint qualifying on Friday and the sprint race and Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday.
The Grand Prix will be held on Sunday, with over 300,000 people expected to be in attendance across the weekend.
McLaren ended the first half of the season on a high, with reigning champion Lando Norris utilizing an upgraded car in Hungary to earn his first win of the season. Norris was in a league of his own pace-wise, finishing 15 seconds ahead of Max Verstappen for the second-biggest margin of victory of the campaign.
But can Norris maintain his momentum at Zandvoort, or will Mercedes – the dominant car so far – come roaring back? Championship leader Kimi Antonelli won five of the opening six races, but has only won once in the last five Grand Prix. This hasn’t been down to a dip in performance, though. The 19-year-old should’ve won at Silverstone if not for a mechanical issue and was also forced to retire from the Spanish Grand Prix.
So, Antonelli is rightfully the favorite to win the Dutch GP, with his “yes” contracts at Kalshi sitting at 33¢. Norris and Lewis Hamilton are tied for second at 17¢. Charles Leclerc (11¢), Verstappen (10¢), and George Russell (9¢) round out the top six. But we’re picking Norris to win the Dutch Grand Prix.
Hungary wasn’t just a one-off. Norris was almost as strong in Belgium, but a grid penalty and poor strategy hampered him. McLaren’s car could be even better, as they’re set to introduce the second part of their upgrade package that was introduced in Hungary. McLaren were also impressive here last year, with Oscar Piastri winning and Norris right on his pace before a mechanical DNF.
As I said, it’s the last race at Zandvoort for the foreseeable future. That means it’s the final chance for Verstappen’s adoring fans to see their idol on home soil. The Red Bull star has an exceptional record at the Dutch Grand Prix. He has won three of the five races staged there since 2021, and finished second in the other two.
Now, Verstappen unfortunately doesn’t have the car to challenge for the win. He’s yet to claim a Grand Prix victory this season, and McLaren and Mercedes will likely again be too strong. But Verstappen will be extra motivated to be on the podium on home soil.
The four-time champion is perhaps the best driver on the grid at always maximizing his result. Despite an inferior car, Verstappen has earned three podium finishes in the last four races. A podium result for Verstappen currently sits at 39¢. I see that as solid value considering the poor reliability of Mercedes and McLaren.
Mercedes have been nearly unbeatable over one lap this season, especially Antonelli, who has claimed six pole positions so far. His teammate, Russell, has two, while Norris was the first non-Mercedes driver to earn a place at the front of the grid in Hungary.
While Norris broke Mercedes’ streak, I’m backing Antonelli to respond emphatically. Zandvoort is a high-speed track and a short lap, so Mercedes’ clear power advantage should give the Italian the edge. Antonelli’s “yes” contracts for pole positions sits at the same as his Grand Prix odds (33¢). But I like it more because of Mercedes’ poor reliability and Norris’ astounding race pace in Hungary.
The big news entering the Dutch Grand Prix is Red Bull driver Isack Hadjar missing the race due to a wrist injury. Racing Bulls’ Liam Lawson will jump up to the top team, with Red Bull reserve driver Yuki Tsunoda set to replace him at the sister outfit.
Hadjar has been in the midst of a solid first season at Red Bull. He sits eighth in the F1 Drivers’ Championship and has earned seven straight points finishes. Lawson, meanwhile, will get the chance at redemption after being kicked from the Red Bull team after just two races last season. Lawson has been the best-of-the-rest this year, sitting in ninth in the championship with 43 points.
The 2026 F1 season is halfway through, and we’ve yet to see a race severely impacted by rain. Miami was brought forward hours to avoid thunderstorms, and Canada was predicted to be a wet race but ultimately failed to deliver.
There is a decent chance Zandvoort provides us our first look at the new regulation of cars in the wet. However, if there is rain, it’ll likely be spring qualifying, Grand Prix qualifying, and the sprint race that’ll be affected. Forecasters see a 40% chance of rain on Friday and 45% on Saturday, with little predicted for Sunday.
While wet-weather chaos is always great entertainment, it can be a nightmare when trying to predict F1 race results. So if you’re considering using Kalshi for the Dutch Grand Prix, it might be wise to wait as late as possible to get the latest weather forecast.
Prediction markets for F1 races always garner a lot of attention, with the Hungarian Grand Prix ending with over $3.5 million in trading volume. As of Wednesday, the Dutch Grand Prix has hit over $200K in trading volume, with fans likely waiting to see the results of the first practice and sprint qualifying to see how the order is likely to shake out.
Antonelli has consistently sat as the favorite, hovering around the 33¢-35¢ mark since the market opened on August 10. Russell, on the other hand, has been far more volatile amid a disappointing season so far. The Mercedes driver opened at 12¢ before tumbling to 5c and then rebounding somewhat to 9¢. Meanwhile, Leclerc has notably gained some traction as the race week has kicked off, moving from 8¢ to 11¢.
Loading …
