Week 3 of the college football season continues this Saturday in Tuscaloosa, as the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide hosts the Florida State Seminoles. Last year, Florida State upset Alabama in Tallahassee. This year, the Crimson Tide seeks to avenge that loss.
Alabama is a runaway favorite on prediction markets. Traders who want to secure “yes” options on the Crimson Tide are likely to face 92¢ for the privilege of owning a single contract. On Kalshi and elsewhere, the sentiment among sports forecasters is “Roll Tide.”
Traders who believe Alabama wins this game at least 92 times out of 100 (or more) should, by all means, stick with the popular choice and obtain Alabama contracts. We feel that those prices are a bit steep considering the Seminoles are coming off a bye week after nearly besting the nationally ranked SMU Mustangs in Week 1.
Our position is that Alabama wins Saturday’s game against Florida State roughly 85% of the time, which is why we’re picking up contracts on the Seminoles for 10¢ apiece to pull off the upset. The move has nothing to do with which team has the best chance of winning and everything to do with the prices that the market has established so far.
Bargain hunters should be all over the Florida State contracts, in our view. For what it’s worth, we’re also working on getting Florida State +20.5 contracts in Kalshi’s point spread market. Those are priced at approximately 51¢ each.
Florida State fired Athletic Director Michael Alford earlier this week. The university is actively seeking a replacement, but the position could take some time to fill. It is unlikely that a new Florida State AD will be named by the time the team’s Saturday afternoon game kicks off in Tuscaloosa.
Prediction market forecasters are likely placing a lot of emphasis on Alabama’s defense. There’s solid reasoning behind that logic, which is a primary cause for the 20.5 point spread. The Crimson Tide defense has only allowed a total of 65 rushing yards over the course of its first two games and has scored a touchdown in each of those contests.
While Florida State is expected to present a unique challenge compared to Kentucky and East Carolina, Alabama’s defense is hoping to limit the Seminoles’ passing attack while continuing its performance against opponents’ attempts to run the ball.
This game was projected at close to even as recently as September 7th. Then the Seminoles lost at home against SMU. The 27-24 loss doesn’t tell the full story of that game, in which Florida State earned a +4 turnover margin.
Simply put, Florida State’s offense couldn’t capitalize on SMU’s offensive miscues. And even though the Florida State defense forced turnovers, they were also absolutely scorched by Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings, who threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns.
Still, the Florida State vs. Alabama “winner” market on Kalshi could break significantly in the Seminoles’ favor if they manage to keep the game close (and score an offensive touchdown) in the first quarter of Saturday’s matchup. The game will be televised live on ABC as 100,000 fans pack Alabama’s home stadium.
Loading …
