Prediction market momentum for the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) to advance to the quarterfinals round of the 2026 World Cup has shifted this morning due to presidential intervention.
On Sunday, it was confirmed that US President Donald Trump called World Cup official Gianni Infantino to request that the red card suspension assessed last week to star forward Folarin Balogun be lifted ahead of tonight’s Round of 16 matchup against Belgium. World Cup officials were convinced to lift the ban, and Folarin Balogun is now cleared to play against the team that knocked the USA out of World Cup contention in 2014.
On Kalshi, the news from Sunday evening quickly flipped the Round of 16 winner from Belgium to the United States. With $15.4 million in total trading volume, the USMNT is now priced at 53¢ per contract to advance, compared to just 49¢ before the news broke.
Balogun was issued a controversial red card in the USMNT’s Round of 32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina by a final score of 2-0. Per World Cup rules, the USA’s most prolific striker would have been forced to miss the entirety of tonight’s match against Belgium, set to kick-off at 5:00pm local time in Seattle.
With the suspension lifted Balogun is now eligible to play, which has given the USMNT’s chances of advancing a significant boost. We agree with Kalshi traders that the USA is a slight favorite to win tonight, and are buying contracts at 53 cents apiece before many fans wake up Monday morning, and before the USMNT continues its upward trend.
Considering that tonight’s match will take place in the open air Seattle Stadium, players couldn’t ask for better weather conditions. Highs at kick-off time are expected to be in the low 70s with practically no chance of rain. Now that Balogun is confirmed to be eligible, there’s literally no excuse for the USMNT to reverse its fortunes on the field.
In 2014, the USA Men’s Team was denied a quarterfinals appearance when it was eliminated from World Cup contention by Belgium. If the USMNT is able to pull off a victory tonight, it will be the first time the USA has advanced to a World Cup quarterfinal since 2002. The last time the USA reached the World Cup semifinals was nearly a century ago, in 1930.
The other two co-host teams (Mexico and Canada) were eliminated over the weekend. If the USMNT can manage to win three more games, it will be guaranteed to play in the 2026 World Cup Final match at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19th.
There’s only an hour or two remaining before a significant portion of soccer fans across the country begin their week and learn of Sunday night’s news. If you’re predicting that the USMNT will advance tonight against Belgium, now is the time to buy and lock in a per-contract price of 53 cents.
Otherwise, Kalshi traders risk having the market continue to move in the USMNT’s favor, which could send the price all the way up to 60 cents by the time the Round of 16 match begins at 5:00pm Pacific Time (8:00pm Eastern).
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