The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) head to Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) in a matchup of massive implications on Saturday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Bulldogs have blown out every opponent so far, highlighted by an impressive 41-13 win over the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 4. The same goes for the Crimson Tide, including a convincing 56-23 road victory over the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week. With that in mind, I’ve been monitoring the best prediction markets to find value on our college football trades.
Alabama is priced at 53 cents to win. The Crimson Tide are -1.5 on the point spread, priced at 50 cents. This makes a lot of sense due to home-field advantage.
The total comes in at 51.5 points, with the Under favored at 53 cents. With the Bulldogs averaging 51.4 points per game and the Crimson Tide at 49.6 points per game, the total feels low at first glance. However, when you consider that these teams each faced much weaker competition leading up to this game, it looks about right.
My preferred approach with this game is to target a side.
I’m riding with Georgia to win outright at 49 cents. The fact that Alabama is only favored by 1.5 points at home speaks volumes to me. The market views Georgia as the better team. If this game were in Georgia, the Bulldogs would likely be favored by 3.5 points.
Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton is completing over 75% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and one interception. That’s the kind of efficient and mistake-free football that I want to see when I’m backing a road team like I am here.
But the biggest key for me here is on defense. The Bulldogs are limiting opponents to 13.4 points per game, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. They have the ability to make the Alabama offense one-dimensional, putting a lot of strain on Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell.
While Russell is certainly capable of putting up gaudy numbers, this feels like a letdown spot against a terrific defense. Add in the fact that we get Georgia to win as an underdog, and this feels like an appealing trade right now.
When looking at prediction markets apps, we see that the market has moved in Alabama’s direction. Back on Oct. 3, Georgia was at 55 cents, but that’s fallen to 49 cents following the Crimson Tide’s impressive victory over Mississippi State. This has created a buying opportunity for us, as we can now get Georgia at a more appealing price.
Loading …
