The 2026 US Open men’s singles tournament is quickly approaching as world-class players prepare for the year’s final major event. Prediction markets have the world’s No. 1 player, Jannik Sinner, listed as the frontrunner.
However, Sinner is still nursing a knee injury that kept him out of the Cincinnati Open. Could this mean that Alexander Zverev is the best pick for forecasters who are participating in the Kalshi market? Here’s our rundown.
Italian superstar Jannik Sinner undoubtedly has the skills to capture another major championship. Yet the true nature of his knee injury is unknown. It’s been classified as a “niggle,” which could flare up in the New York City heat once action begins in the men’s singles tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz is likewise treating an injury that he sustained earlier this year. Many traders believe that his wrist has yet to fully heal and could cause serious problems over the courts of the two-week tournament.
For these reasons, we really like Alexander Zverev to win the 2026 US Open men’s singles tournament. Zverev is healthy, won at Roland Garros, and is currently ranked No. 3 in the world. If his serve holds, Zverev will be the player to beat in New York.
The Kalshi “winner” market for the men’s singles tournament at this year’s US Open has already reached $2 million in total trading volume. That’s quite an accomplishment considering the main draw won’t happen until August 30th.
For the most part, Jannik Sinner is trending downward as forecasters worry about his knee. The contract price for Zverev to win the US Open has increased as a result, surging from 9 cents to 17 cents over the past month. Sinner’s absence in the Cincinnati Open has caused a lot of heads to turn as we await the outcome of that event.
The Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens has two courts with retractable roofs: Arthur Ashe Stadium and Louis Armstrong Stadium. Every other court is susceptible to the elements.
The weather forecast in early September is calling for high heat and humidity, which won’t help Alcaraz’s wrist or Sinner’s knee. Afternoon showers are likely to cause match delays on multiple days, which could lead to players having to play several days in a row even if they are winning matches and advancing.
A contract on Alexander Zverev to win the US Open at any price under 20 cents is a solid choice, in our opinion. Similar to other major sports, tennis is a game of inches and split-second timing. Depending on how competitive the early matches are, the eventual men’s singles tournament winner could be forced to play approximately 25 sets of highly competitive tennis just to reach the final match.
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