The astounding Democrat-led thrashing of the GOP in the 2026 midterms has reset the table for which candidate prediction market forecasters believe has the best chance to secure the presidential nomination in 2028.
Democratic primaries for president are still more than a year away, but that hasn’t stopped many political junkies from elevating Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff into the top spot. Kalshi traders have placed trades in excess of $284 million on who will be the POTUS nominee for the Democratic Party in the next general election.
Jon Ossoff easily won reelection earlier this month to secure a second term as Georgia’s senior Senator. Despite his impressive showing and the “blue tsunami” that occurred, the former documentary filmmaker claims he has “zero interest” in running for president.
But that has only fueled the Kalshi political prediction market fervor to new heights. Just one week after the midterms, traders can’t find a Jon Ossoff contract for Democratic POTUS nominee in 2028 for under 26 cents.
With that said, we don’t think Ossoff, who turns 40 in three months, will run. It’s why we’re not picking up his contracts right now.
The “young blood” approach to choosing a 2028 POTUS nominee for the Democratic Party has caused contracts for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to remain near 15 cents each. Those prices have remained steady since June, after Ocasio-Cortez’s contracts peaked at 21 cents in May.
She will begin her fifth term as a member of the US House of Representatives (New York) in January. That’s quite an accomplishment for a politician who will barely be 40 years old at the turn of the decade.
As long as the former Bernie Sanders campaign organizer’s contracts hover around 15 cents, we’re bullish on this pick. Ocasio-Cortez has the youth, experience, and mainstream appeal that sets her above the competition. Her only disadvantage is that she represents a state that the Democrats already have locked up.
If nothing else, current California Governor Gavin Newsom has impeccable timing. His tenure as the state’s chief executive will end on January 4th, when Xavier Becerra is sworn in. Newsom is a bit older than the previous two candidates, but is still young enough that he could hypothetically serve two full terms as US President before he turns 70.
The former Mayor of San Francisco has a lot going for him: a successful podcast, nearly two decades of high-level public service, and a gift for gab. However, California isn’t exactly a “battleground state” (despite Donald Trump’s relatively strong showing there in the 2024 general election). Political forecasters who believe Gavin Newsom will easily earn the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in 2028 can purchase his contracts on Kalshi right now for just 12 cents each.
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