The 2026 World Cup boosted prediction market trading volume across the industry, culminating in trading volume that was close to $1.9 billion on Kalshi’s tournament winner market alone. Sunday’s final between Spain and Argentina resulted in a 1-0 victory for La Furia Roja, which was listed at only 10 cents per contract to win the World Cup in early July.
The final notional trading volume for Kalshi’s World Cup winner market totaled $1,893,215,049. That figure represents one of the largest single-event markets in Kalshi’s history and is the highest trading volume total since the 2026 Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
Weekend reports by major news outlets show that prediction markets experienced a significant spike in new customer acquisition and trading volume as a result of the 2026 World Cup. According to CNBC, Kalshi added 3 million new users over the course of the world’s most popular soccer tournament. Underdog CEO Jeremy Levine told CNBC Host Contessa Brewer Friday that the World Cup has been “amazing” for the CFTC-regulated exchange.
Separately, Bloomberg published an article over the weekend that prediction market trades on World Cup matches had eaten into revenue that traditional, state-licensed sports books would have captured without the existence of prediction platforms. By all measures, the World Cup matches prompted sports fans from across the nation to forecast event outcomes via yes-or-no trades.
Kalshi became a trading volume phenomenon during the 2026 World Cup. Due to the tournament’s format, which enabled more than two matches to be played during the group phase, forecasters were placing millions of dollars in predictions every single minute on the matches’ outcomes.
It was not uncommon for notional trading volume to jump by $2 million or more during any given 60-second time frame when a match was occurring. This was especially true for the World Cup Final between Spain and Argentina and the third-place matchup between England and France.
Estimates provided by CoinDesk point to $50 billion in World Cup trading volume on prediction markets. While notional trading volume can be a bit misleading because of “combo” trades, that figure easily surpasses US sportsbook “handle” from giants like DraftKings and FanDuel.
The “peer-to-peer” business model that prediction markets like Kalshi and Underdog operate under means that liquidity is “king” in terms of trade availability. Kalshi is currently available in 48 states but was recently forced by a state court to dissolve trades from customers who reside in Michigan. The action was taken despite an “emergency” mandate by the CFTC for Kalshi to refrain from cancelling those contracts.
Underdog officially launched its own CFTC-regulated exchange on Friday but continues to comply with legal complaints that currently dispute the legality of its sports-related event contracts. As a result, Underdog’s new exchange, despite federal regulation, is only available in approximately two-thirds of the country.
If you’re located in any state other than Michigan or Nevada, you can join Kalshi and start trading today as long as you are at least 18 years of age. Kalshi offers markets on sports, politics, global affairs, and entertainment outcomes.
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