The 2026 World Cup “winner” market on Kalshi reached an important milestone on Tuesday, surpassing $1 billion in total trading volume ahead of the upcoming quarterfinal matches. If we include notional trading volume across all prediction markets that are related to the 2026 World Cup, Kalshi has hosted more than $7.4B in predictions.
With in-game trading volume exceeding $2 million per minute, the market on which team will eventually win the marquee tournament has already become the second-largest sports prediction market ever on the CFTC-regulated exchange. The 2026 NFL Super Bowl achieved $2.8B in one week, including $1B on Super Bowl Sunday.
Coming into Wednesday morning, only eight out of the original 48 teams remain in contention to win the 2026 World Cup: France, Morocco, Belgium, Spain, England, Norway, Argentina, and Switzerland. The first two quarterfinal matches will be played tomorrow, as France takes on Morocco and Spain goes against Belgium.
The favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, according to Kalshi forecasters, are as follows:
Though it’s becoming more difficult to find value in the Kalshi 2026 World Cup winner market, we’re sticking with Spain at a contract price of 18.8 cents. A few days ago, Spain was listed at 10¢ per contract. However, the team has regained trader confidence after its slow start during the Group stage.
We believe France remains way overpriced at 33.8 cents per contract, even though Kalshi forecasters have brought the contract cost down from 34.5 cents in recent hours. Due to the insane amount of trading volume that this market is receiving, we recommend monitoring each market to see if there’s an upward or downward trend that you can take advantage of in the form of a value trade.
To become the all-time largest prediction market in Kalshi’s history, the 2026 World Cup winner market will need to surpass $2.8 billion in total trading volume before the final match concludes on July 19th. That may seem like a stretch given that no single day has yet to attract $200 million on the winner’s market. However, trading volume is expected to continue gaining momentum over the next 12 days.
Moreover, if there is more than $1B in trading volume for July 19th alone (like there was for Super Bowl Sunday), the 2026 Kalshi winner’s market could easily outperform the trading volume that was recorded for the 2026 NFL Super Bowl. In short, we indeed expect that the 2026 World Cup winner’s market on Kalshi will break $3 billion.
If you’re located in the United States and would like to get in on the action, you can sign up for a new Kalshi account now. The minimum age requirement is 18 and the 2026 World Cup champion has yet to be determined.
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