Primary voters in Kansas head to the polls tomorrow to select their favorite candidate to replace term-limited Governor Laura Kelly. With roughly 24 hours remaining before in-person voting begins, Ty Masterson is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican primary.
If forecasting trends on prediction markets hold, Masterson will advance to the November general election for governor, where he will most likely face Democrat Cindy Holscher. Is Masterson’s status as the Republican primary favorite justified? Let’s take a look.
There’s one variable that current Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson has that other Republican primary candidates don’t… an endorsement from President Donald Trump. When Trump placed his support behind Masterson in a May 2026 Truth Social post, the Republican primary race to decide the state’s next governor immediately shifted in Masterson’s favor.
While a presidential endorsement has yet to be tested in the 2026 midterm general elections, Trump’s backing has proven to be a decisive factor in other Republican primaries this year (just ask Thomas Massie, John Cornyn, and Bill Cassidy). For this reason, we think the 95.6¢ per-contract price on Masterson to advance is justified, even if it’s relatively expensive.
No one expects Philip Sarnecki, Scott Schwab, or Vicki Schmidt to be competitive once the results are tabulated. Ty Masterson will advance to the November general election, where he will be a significant favorite over the Democratic primary winner.
This race has attracted over $132,000 in total trading volume since the market opened on Kalshi in April 2025. Trading activity understandably spiked following Donald Trump’s endorsement of Masterson in late May. It has since remained steadily in favor of the State Senator from Andover.
At this point, any purchases of longshot options seem to be destined to fail once this market resolves. Depending on the number of major media outlets that pick up the story tomorrow night, contract holders could see this market quickly settle as soon as the Kansas state government confirms the results.
Don’t expect any eleventh-hour market movement for the Republican primary election to determine who will advance to the general election for Kansas governor. The major moves were made more than two months ago following Donald Trump’s published support of Ty Masterson.
If anything, Masterson’s per-contract price could very well exceed 96 cents by the time polls open tomorrow. If you’re a first-time trader who wants to get in on the action, you can join Kalshi today and forecast your favorite political and sports outcomes. You only need to be 18 to register for a new Kalshi account.
Loading …
