Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson is just one race away from claiming his third NASCAR Cup Series title and hoisting the Bill France Cup. The California native’s ninth-place finish in the Xfinity 500 in Martinsville all but guarantees he will have enough points to outpace the only two remaining competitors: Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell.
With a 67-point lead, the 2013 NASCAR Rookie of the Year needs only nine points this Sunday to ensure he wins the championship, a market that has attracted more than $5.9 million on the Kalshi prediction market app. Below, we’ll explain why buying Larson’s contracts for the NASCAR Cup Series “winner” market provides value.
It would take an extremely disappointing DNF performance for Kyle Larson to lose his grip on the NASCAR Cup Series title this Sunday.
The maximum total points a single driver can earn will be 76 points for the final race of the season: 55 points for winning, 10 points extra for each of the two stages, and one point for the fastest lap. That leaves zero room for error for the current second- and third-place leaders even if Larson experiences a catastrophic, on-track failure during the first stage of the race.
Larson’s contracts, currently available on sports prediction markets for the low price of 95¢, are a steal, according to many racing prognosticators. All the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro driver needs to do is obtain nine points. That goal can be achieved simply by placing third (8 points) in one of the two stages of the championship race (because all drivers who start the race are automatically awarded one point).
The final race of the NASCAR postseason is returning to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the first time since 2019. The Kalshi market for which driver will win the actual race this Sunday is divided between Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick. However, neither Blaney nor Reddick are eligible to win the overall Cup Series championship. They have already been eliminated due to this year’s “The Chase” format. The race track is a 1.5-mile oval. The race will consist of 267 laps for a total of 400.5 miles.
A sellout crowd is expected at the venue, with the telecast available on NBC. Live streamers will be able to stream the entire race through the Peacock app.
In a word, no. Contracts for Denny Hamlin or Christopher Bell to win the NASCAR Cup Series are currently priced around 3¢ each. Larson’s stranglehold on the Bill France Cup means that Hamlin’s and Bell’s contracts would need to be priced around 1¢ each to provide any value.
Traders who want to get in on the NASCAR action before this Sunday afternoon by participating in a more competitive market should consult Kalshi’s contract prices for the driver who will win the actual Championship Race (and not the Cup Series standings).
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