The race for NBA MVP is hotting up, with only a few weeks of the regular season left, but there’s still time to make your pick at leading prediction market sites such as Crypto.com.
Defending champion Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently way out in front in the race for MVP, with 85% on Crypto.com, but there are several other major contenders gaining ground. Luka Dončić, Tyrese Maxey and rising star Victor Wembanyama are all possible MVP winners as we head towards the Playoffs. Here’s your guide to the NBA MVP and details on making your pick at Crypto.com.
We’re hurtling towards the end of the regular NBA season, but, as well as the race for the Playoffs, the fight for MVP is becoming ever more exciting. Last year’s winner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is on track to secure another MVP title, with high numbers across prediction markets such as Crypto.com.
That being said, several other players have been gaining ground with standout performances. In the following section, we’ll take a closer look at how each player is ranked.
As we write, Shai Gilegous-Alexander is far and away the favorite to take home the NBA MVP award this year. Here’s a closer look at his chances and other possible contenders:
If Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander clinches the MVP award, this would be his second win and a back-to-back victory, which is an impressive feat. However, stellar performances from other players have pushed down SGA’s chance of winning at Crypto.com from close to 90% to 85%.
Los Angeles Laker icon Luka Dončić has seen his chances of reaching MVP increase significantly in the past few days. The Lakers have won nine out of their previous ten games and are at number three spot in the Western Conference.
Tyrese Maxey, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are all sitting at 6% on Crypto.com right now, but don’t seem to be in major contention. Maxey is out with a finger injury but could return soon. Durant has just pushed into MVP contention, as has Steph Curry. Both have already won the MVP twice, but could history repeat itself in 2026?
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has been hampered by injury this season, placing him way down in the Crypto.com rankings. However, a recent impressive win over the Phoenix Suns saw Jokic make a 23-point, 17-rebound, 17-assist triple-double. Teams are focusing on defence against Jokic, which could mean that he has to work harder for victory, or could push him to a whole new level of greatness.
With an 84% chance of being named MVP, there’s no doubt that the market is backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In fact, he’s been the leader since the market opened. But we have seen him lose ground over the past few days. Don’t get us wrong, he’s still the favorite by some distance, but it might be possible for Dončić or Wenbanyama to build points.
Both Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama have gained around five percentage points in the last few days. Wembanyama helped to secure an excellent victory over Miami last week, helping the San Antonio Spurs to clinch their Playoff spot. Dončić has never won an MVP, despite being in contention for many years.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs begins on April 18th, and game one of the NBA Final will be on June 3rd. That means we’ve still got several months of play before we get close to the MVP award. Injuries could impact any of the nominees, and we can expect coaches to have developed specific strategies to overcome the dangers posed by the increased game intensity.
At this point in the season, it would be very unlikely for anyone other than the main contenders we’ve highlighted to snatch the MVP award. There are other names listed on Crypto.com, but all have sub 1% chances of winning.
It’s not unusual for NBA players to achieve back-to-back MVP wins – Nikola Jokic achieved the feat most recently in 2021/2022, as well as winning again in 2024, so it’s very possible that Shai could win again.
Luka Dončić has long been considered a shoe-in for the MVP, but he just hasn’t yet managed to pip Jokic or SGA. It looks unlikely this year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his numbers grow as the season continues.
Crypto.com is our number one choice for this market. You can sign up in seconds and make your pick of the NBA MVP by following our guide:
The table below shows the implied probabilities and current contract prices for the NBA MVP at Crypto.com. These prices are correct at the time of writing but can be subject to quick change as the market fluctuates:
| Player | Chance | ‘Yes’ price at Crypto.com | ‘No’ price at Crypto.com |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 85% | $0.85 | $0.17 |
| Luka Dončić | 9% | $0.09 | $0.94 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 9% | $0.09 | $0.92 |
| Tyrese Maxey, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry | 6% | $0.06 | Unavailable |
| Nikola Jokic | 2% | $0.02 | $0.99 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the overwhelming frontrunner for NBA MVP, with a percentage of 84% on Crypto.com. While this would seem a pretty safe pick, there are other players gaining points, including Maxey, Durant and Curry, as well as yet-to-win Luka Dončić, and MVP-of-the-future Victor Wembanyama.
You can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on all of these picks easily at Crypto.com. Take a straight shot over to the site using our links to sign up for an account and start trading today.
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