The nonpartisan Los Angeles mayoral primary election is finally upon us. On Tuesday, June 2nd, voters will head to the polls to select their next mayor. The three top candidates who are running for the office include incumbent Karen Bass, reality TV star Spencer Pratt, and current LA city councilwoman Nithya Raman.
Although the Kalshi prediction exchange has seen more than $34 million in trading volume in recent weeks, Tuesday’s primary may not determine who wins the election. If no candidate receives at least 50% of the total vote on Tuesday, the top two vote-getters will compete against each other in the General Municipal Election on November 3rd, 2026.
A poll published Thursday by the LA Times shows a drastically different race than the one Kalshi traders are forecasting. The Times has the race in a virtual “dead heat,” with incumbent Karen Bass entangled in a three-way lock with Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt.
Given the humungous trading volume relative to most mayoral elections, we tend to believe what the prediction markets say. Karen Bass is priced at 62¢ per contract while her opponents display clear underdog tendencies on the exchange. You can get Pratt to win at 20¢ while LA city councilwoman Nithya Raman lags behind the competition at 12 cents.
In our opinion, the political party alignment shared by Raman and Bass places the former at a serious disadvantage. We think it will be Spencer Pratt who occupies one of the top 2 slots along with Karen Bass once the dust has settled Tuesday night (or early Wednesday morning).
If our pick holds true, Bass will be competing directly (and solely) against Pratt in November. And… given the city’s political leanings – it’s difficult to conceive the notion of a conservative outperforming a liberal in a general election for the country’s second largest city.
Just about every digital publication in the Greater Los Angeles area has an opinion on who will come out on top. Similar to sports contests, the editorial rhetoric is equally as sharp and pointed as the exchange forecasts with actual money behind them.
Regardless of who you think will win Tuesday (and if necessary, who will be the victor in November’s General Municipal Election), there are multiple articles floating around in which the author(s) will outright insist they know the outcome hours before the polls close.
Nithya Raman? She’s the progressive who will defeat the incumbent after Bass so-poorly managed the LA Wildfires response in early 2025. Spencer Pratt? He’s the conservative that the city needs to uproot 25 years of rule by the Democratic Party. Karen Bass? She’s the incumbent who has the necessary experience to lead Los Angeles into the 2030s.
It really is a treat to read so many viewpoints from individuals who are intimately familiar with Los Angeles and must live with the final outcome, whether it’s decided this Tuesday or in November.
The eventual top duo to face-off in the November general election are Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt. The price for a Bass v Pratt November showdown has remained steady at 75 cents per contract.
If you like to place forecasts in favor of massive underdogs, the Bass v Raman combination for November’s general election has dived to just 7 cents. The “vote percent” for the first (primary) round has seen more erratic percentages leading up to Tuesday’s election. A total first round percentage for Karen Bass of 20%-25% has moved down to 16 cents.
As a consequence, Kalshi traders are putting their prediction skills behind Bass getting 30%-35% of the first round primary vote. You can pick up that trade for 29¢, and be assured of a quick determination. You can forecast the Los Angeles Mayor election right now on Kalshi. Predict the first round if you want to know the outcome this week; pick the eventual Municipal General Election winner if you’re willing to wait until November.
Loading …
