The release of Madden NFL 27 is nearly here and all sports fans are wondering: who’s on the cover? Typically, EA Sports selects one of the NFL’s biggest stars, who have had a big impact on their team and on football as a whole.
At prediction market Kalshi, Caleb Williams is the current top pick for the cover athlete, with a roughly 89% Yes vote, a number that’s grown by more than 10% in the past month. Want to know how you should direct your pick? Our guide has insight into the market and details on making your trade.
There’s no official shortlist for the Madden 27 NFL cover star, but there are 21 popular names in this category on Kalshi. Since the market opened, Caleb Williams has remained steady as the number one pick, but other high-profile players, including Myles Garrett, Drake Maye, and Jaxon Smith-Njiba, are still in the running.
In common with other brands on our list of prediction market apps, Kalshi has Caleb Williams as the most likely athlete to appear on the NFL Madden cover. Myles Garret, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, and Drake Maye follow Williams, although none exceed a 20% chance. Let’s take a closer look at how Kalshi views each player’s chances.
Caleb Williams, aka the ‘Iceman’, holds an 89% chance of making the Madden cover. In the past, EA Sports has selected players whose seasons have included a particularly dramatic play, and Williams’ 46-yard throw against the Packers could well be an iconic cover design. However, attempts to copyright the Iceman nickname have been recently contested, which could make Williams less likely to be chosen.
Defensive Player of the Year in 2023 and 2025, Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has a roughly 20% chance of becoming the Madden cover star. Defensive players are chosen less frequently, but Garrett’s impressive numbers this season make him a legitimate possibility.
Wide receiver for the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had a fantastic year. He had a lot of promise as this season started and delivered impressive numbers, including 119 receptions and ten touchdowns. Wide receivers aren’t chosen often as Madden cover stars, but JSN’s performance over the season would definitely make him a strong contender.
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye has recently been announced as the cover star for Topps trading cards along with Titans QB Cam
ward. This will increase Maye’s profile and could see the market shift in his favour.
The above names are the most likely cover star choices, but the market also features other contenders such as Matthew Stafford (7%), Travis Kelce (6%) and Micah Parsons (5%).
Caleb Williams has a strong market backing to be this year’s Madden cover athlete, but we have seen some movements amongst other players. Here are the latest market changes:
Caleb Williams seems to be a shoo-in for the Madden cover. When the market opened in October, Williams started at around 20%, but this has rocketed to above 60% for most of the period since February.
At the moment, Drake Maye holds a 20% chance of being the NFL cover star, but this is a big drop in his numbers. In February, around the time of the Super Bowl, Maye was at a high of over 80% but this has reduced. His announcement as the star of Topps trading cards could raise his public profile so watch this space over the next week to see how this impacts the market.
While it’s possible for two players to be featured on the Madden cover, it’s much more likely to be one. However, a duo shouldn’t be ruled out completely. It wouldn’t be a major shock to see any of the players listed at Kalshi make the cover but the top five are much more likely.
We know that the folks at EA Sports like to pick cover athletes with a strong previous season. Last year’s athlete Saquon Barkley, for example, was Super Bowl Champion and the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, plus the winner of the Bert Bell Award.
Drake Maye won the most recent Bert Bell Award, but JSN was the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year. This has given the two more public visibility, which could push them higher up the shortlist for Madden cover player.
Here’s a simple guide to making this trade at Kalshi:
In the table below, we’ve outlined the current prices for this market on Kalshi:
| Athlete | Implied probability | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 89% | $0.89 | $0.14 |
| Drake Maye | 20% | $0.19 | $0.85 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 18% | $0.20 | $0.83 |
| Myles Garrett | 19% | $0.18 | $0.86 |
Bear in mind that these prices will be subject to fluctuations as the market updates. Yes and No prices won’t add up to exactly $1, as Kalshi is a live order book prediction market, so current prices are influenced by bid-ask spreads and liquidity.
The traders at Kalshi are squarely backing Caleb Williams to be the NFL Madden 27 cover athlete, but this race isn’t over yet. Williams had a stellar year and has built a strong personal brand across social media, but there are other contenders. Drake Maye is seeing his star rise, and Jaxon Smith-Njiba was instrumental in bringing the Super Bowl home for the Seahawks.
If you’d like to participate in this trade, you can do so in a few minutes by heading over to Kalshi using the banners on this page.
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