Democratic Senate candidate for the state of Maine, Graham Platner, is all but a guarantee to win his party’s nomination when the polls close tonight. His primary rival, Janet Mills hasn’t made a campaign appearance this month and is only polling at 0.4%, according to Kalshi forecasters (which have Platner at 99%+).
If Platner gets the bid for Maine democrats (as expected), he will be slated to face-off against political stalwart Susan Collins in the November general election for one of the state’s two Senate seats. Collins is in the poll position in her own Republican primary, likewise receiving a 99%+ chance on prediction markets of advancing to the general election.
There are a couple of very interesting Kalshi markets related to Graham Platner’s potential results, but neither of them revolve around whether he will win tonight. The controversy surrounding the Democratic candidate has been widely reported in recent weeks. Scandals including explicit text messages along with questions surrounding his background have surfaced even as the candidate has all but secured the Democratic Party’s nomination.
If you’re looking for picks, then we like the 99 cents per contract price on Platner winning tonight, along with the 91-cent “no” option on the former oysterman dropping out of the race once he becomes the formal nominee for his party. The Democrats have too much of a chance to unseat Susan Collins in November, which makes an early exit by Platner highly unlikely in our view.
The latest news surrounding today’s primary election is whether Platner will decide to bow out and hand his nomination over to another candidate before the general election. Maine election laws allow for this possibility, but it would need to occur before the second Monday of July – in which case the Democratic Party would have two weeks to find a replacement.
There’s simply too much riding on the outcome for Platner to be pushed out politically. Many Democrats believe that the midterm general elections in November will turn both chambers of Congress in their favor, and a “switch” from Collins to Platner would be a welcome outcome – even if some members of the party are concerned about the allegations that have been published.
There’s no significant movement on the actual Democratic primary result; Graham Platner is a virtual lock to win tonight.
However, the market has moved in terms of who forecasters believe will win the general election in November.
You can pick up Graham Platner to win the November general election for the Maine Senate seat for a price of 58 cents. If, on the other hand, you prefer Susan Collins, her November “to-win” contract price is sitting at around 44 cents leading into today’s state primary elections.
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