On July 24th, we published a report that recommended buying “yes” shares on Kalshi for Abdul El-Sayed to win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary election. Ten days later, trading volume on the Kalshi prediction market app has risen from $3.29 million to $7.8 million.
In roughly 240 hours, El-Sayed’s per-contract price has soared from 78¢ all the way up to 97.9¢. The progressive candidate is far and away the favorite to win tomorrow’s primary election in Michigan. As a result, Kalshi traders are shifting their focus to the “margin of victory” secondary market.
The information we published on July 24th still applies: El-Sayed represents a very popular alternative to establishment politics who now enjoys the full backing of the powerful United Auto Workers (UAW) union. Traders have decided to entirely dismiss the mid-July polling data that showed a much closer Democratic primary race between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.
However, our analysis that the then-78¢ contract price for El-Sayed to win the primary was on the “steep side” has likewise been ignored by Kalshi traders, many of whom have contributed to the progressive candidate’s meteoric rise in price on the exchange.
As a direct result, we’re updating our “margin of victory” forecast for Abdul El-Sayed in tomorrow’s Democratic primary election to determine who will advance to the general election for US Senator. You can currently pick up contracts on El-Sayed to win by 15 percentage points or more at 48 cents. That’s where the value now resides for professional election forecasters.
On paper, the expected general election showdown to determine who will win the US Senate seat for Michigan is a toss-up. However, Kalshi forecasters beg to differ.
That general election market has the Democratic candidate forecast to outperform the Republican candidate in November by a 2-to-1 ratio. There’s huge money that’s backing El-Sayed off-exchange. This includes $14.5 million in mostly small-dollar donations from backers, as the Democratic candidate has notably rejected corporate PAC funding, opting instead to drive campaign donations through the use of his ActBlue social media account.
Retiring Senator Gary Peters, who currently holds the seat, is a Democrat. This means that the Democratic Party will hold on to that key seat if Abdul El-Sayed is as successful in the November general election as he’s expected to be in tomorrow’s primary election.
Over the weekend, the Detroit Free Press published a story that focuses on the most recent polling data aggregated by RealClearPolitics. The polling average shows that Stevens is behind by less than 10 full percentage points, a statistic that many professional traders aren’t taking much stock in.
Our prediction that El-Sayed will win tomorrow’s Democratic primary election for Michigan Senator by at least 15 percentage points remains, despite the recently released polling averages. There’s simply too much momentum in El-Sayed’s favor to believe tomorrow’s primary election will be close.
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