Yankees fielder, Aaron Judge is having a strong season and has already been mentioned as the possible recipient of this year’s American League MVP award. Already a three-time winner, Judge is the leader for this market at prediction exchange Kalshi.
With the lion’s share of the regular season still to go, this market is no foregone conclusion. Sluggers like Ben Rice and Yordan Álvarez are building statistics to rival Judge and are increasing their chances of winning at Kalshi. In this guide, we’ll break down all possible winners, and tell you how you can make your selection at Kalshi.
It’s still early in the season but, based on the traders at Kalshi, the most likely winners of the AL MVP (Most Valuable Player) Award this season are Aaron Judge or Yordan Álvarez. Bobby Witt Jr, Ben Rice and Gunnar Henderson are also considered to be potential winners.
Kalshi allows members to make trades across a range of sports prediction markets, including future events such as the winners of the World Series and the winner of the American League MVP Award. The winner of this award is decided and presented by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), who vote on names after the regular MLB season has ended. Currently, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has emerged as the frontrunner for this market at Kalshi, with a 44% chance of winning the AL MVP.
We’re not too far into the MLB season but Judge is already among the top in the league for home runs and runs. He has won the AL MVP award three times already and is the defending champion. A recent MLB poll also placed Judge first, with 19 first-place votes from baseball experts.
Recent ‘Player of the Month’ Yordan Álvarez is building excellent numbers so far this season and is second only to Judge for home runs and OPS (1.097). But, after a 2025 season marred by injury, we haven’t seen Álvarez really hit his stride yet. When he does, he could well chase Judge’s numbers.
Royals slugger Bobby Witt Jr hasn’t built such strong numbers as Judge or Álvarez yet this season but seems to be building up momentum nicely. His defense is excellent and it looks like it’s only a matter of time before he reaches similar OPS and home run averages.
Judge’s Yankees teammate Ben Rice could become his biggest competition for the MVP award. In 2026, Rice has a phenomenal 1.214 OPS, 12 homers and 27 RBIs. Although not high up on Kalshi, Mike Trout is another strong possibility. Already a three-time MVP winner, Trout has started 2026 with an OPS of .983 and ten homers, with plenty more left in the tank for the rest of the season.
We expect to see this market shift a lot as we continue through the MLB regular season, but let’s take a closer look at the market movement so far:
At Kalshi, Judge currently has an implied chance of winning the AL MVP of 44%, which has grown nine points in the past few days. The Yankees faced a slight slump in April but are coming back strong in May, with a 24-11 record as we write this, thanks in part to Judge’s superior slugging.
Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr’s chances of winning the AL MVP have increased by four points at Kalshi, sitting at 8% at the time of writing. As we’ve mentioned, his stats aren’t the highest yet, and the Royals are currently 16-19, but things look to be turning a corner and it’s important to remember the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint.
We’re still only around 20 games into the MLB season, so there are 140 still to go and plenty of time for new names to emerge. Judge is a clear leader at Kalshi but there are at least eight other players who could have a chance at winning, depending on how the numbers pan out.
Voting for the MVP Winner takes place after the regular season but the results aren’t announced until the World Series so play offs don’t impact the prize. Although the guidelines give the voters some flexibility, we can expect the award to go to players with a high OPS, a strong homer record and a consistent contribution to their team.
Trading this market at Kalshi is easy and the first step is registering for an account:
In the table below, we’ve gathered up the current trading prices for this market:
| Nominee | Team | Implied probability | ‘Yes’ price | ‘No’ price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | 44% | $0.45 | $0.56 |
| Yordan Álvarez | Astros | 22% | $0.22 | $0.79 |
| Bobby Witt Jr | Kansas City Royals | 8% | $0.09 | $0.92 |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | 7% | $0.07 | $0.94 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | 6% | $0.04 | $0.98 |
The American League MVP winner 2026 is too early to call but sporting opinion, and the traders on Kalshi, seem to align with Aaron Judge making it a third win in a row. Judge has very impressive stats at this point in this season but isn’t uncatchable, with players like Álvarez, Rice and Witt Jr all building up momentum as we head into the second full month of the 2026 MLB season.
Think we’re way off the mark? You can head over to Kalshi now to make your selection on this market. Just tap on our banners to go straight to the site.
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