The Toronto Blue Jays (68-70) are set for a pivotal matchup against the Cleveland Guardians (69-68) in a game that has major repercussions for the AL Wild Card race. The Guardians currently hold a 1.5-game lead on the Blue Jays, so this is the start of a massive series.
Both teams are in great form right now, with the Blue Jays going 14-8 in their last 23 games and the Guardians winning eight of their last 10. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at MLB prediction markets to try to find value in this matchup.
The Guardians are priced at 63 cents to win this game. This makes sense because they have home-field advantage along with a major edge on the mound. Gavin Williams has been the Guardians’ ace this season, putting up a 3.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 204 strikeouts in 156 innings.
On the other side, the Blue Jays are sending out Spencer Arrighetti, who has a 4.82 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 95.1 innings. This is why they’re heavy underdogs for this game, but one could argue they’re a bit undervalued here, especially considering how well they’ve been playing lately.
I’m taking Over 7.5 runs scored: Yes in this game, which is priced at 53 cents.
Gavin Williams has hit a rough patch recently, allowing five runs in two of his last three starts. This includes his worst outing of the season in his last turn, where he allowed five earned runs in 1.1 innings.
Spencer Arrighetti has also struggled lately, allowing a combined seven earned runs in 7.1 innings in two starts since returning from injury.
On top of that, we’re getting favorable weather for hitting, as forecasts call for 84-degree temperatures. Warmer weather means that the ball can carry more, which bodes well for these two teams combining for eight runs or more.
We also should acknowledge that each of these teams has been hot at the plate. In the last seven days, the Blue Jays are 4th in wRC+, while the Guardians are 12th.
With that in mind, riding with the Over looks like the better play than choosing a side.
The Guardians opened around 61% favorites for this game, but there hasn’t been much movement in the market here, as they’re currently 63 cents to win. Cleveland clearly has the edge on the mound in this game, but they’re a bit too pricey to take to win, so we’re going with Over 7.5 runs instead.
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