The Milwaukee Brewers have a 3-0 series lead after blowing out the Rays in a 10-1 win in Game 3. Robert Gasser pitched brilliantly for Milwaukee, going six scoreless innings while allowing one hit. The offense also came alive, with Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras each combining for 10 hits.
The Rays are sending out Griffin Jax as their last hope to keep their World Series chances alive. Milwaukee is expected to counter with Dustin May in what should primarily be a bullpen game. First pitch is at 8 p.m. ET.
With that in mind, let’s look into prediction markets to see where the best trades are for Game 4.
The Brewers are priced at 54 cents to win this game. This makes sense because of how they’re now in firm control of this series. Dustin May plus their bullpen also gives them a slight edge on the mound over Griffin Jax. Freddy Peralta only went 4.2 innings yesterday, so the Rays had to use several relievers. In other words, Milwaukee’s bullpen is much fresher.
The total comes in at 7.5 runs, with the Under favored at 56 cents. This number makes sense because the Rays’ bats have gone cold, combining for only seven runs in this series.
I’m going with the Rays to win this game at 47 cents. Despite having a pitching disadvantage, especially in the bullpen, I’m riding with Tampa to avoid the sweep. Remember, they were absolutely dominant at home this season, putting up a 55-26 record. I’m expecting them to steal at least one game in this series.
Despite Monday’s blowout, this has been an extremely competitive series, with two one-run games to start off the series. To that end, the Rays definitely deserve to get at least one game here. Getting them as home underdogs makes it an appealing trade in this spot.
In looking at MLB prediction markets, we see that there has been significant movement on this Brewers vs Rays game so far. Tampa began as 51-cent favorites, but the market has shifted towards the Brewers, who are now 53-cent favorites. It appears as if the market is reacting to Monday’s blowout loss, but this feels like a slight overreaction.
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