The Milwaukee Brewers (86-53) bounced back with a 9-4 win over the Chicago Cubs (78-61) after they dropped the series opener 17-3. This is an intriguing four-game series between two of the best teams in the National League.
The Brewers are in top form right now, going 11-5 in their last 16 games, while the Cubs have stumbled a bit, losing six of their last 10. With that in mind, let’s dive into MLB prediction markets to try to find value in this matchup.
The Brewers are priced at 60 cents to win this game. This makes sense because they have the best pitcher in baseball taking the mound tonight, Jacob Misiorowski. The flame-throwing right-hander has a 1.73 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with 222 strikeouts and 35 walks in 151 innings. He has allowed a combined three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings.
On the other side, the Cubs are countering with David Peterson, who has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP with 109 strikeouts and 52 walks in 123.1 innings. To that end, it’s no surprise to see the Cubs as heavy underdogs here, even in a home game.
I’m taking Over 8.5 runs scored: No in this game, which is priced at 52 cents.
This is a bet on Jacob Misiorowski. He has gone at least six innings with two earned runs allowed or fewer in four of his last five outings. When he last faced the Cubs on June 26th, he allowed one earned run in six innings.
Even though David Peterson has been shaky for most of the year, he has been much better lately, allowing a combined four earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 11 innings. When he last faced the Brewers on June 27th, he allowed two earned runs in 5.2 innings.
The reason why the line is 8.5 is that we’re getting hitter-friendly weather with forecasts calling for 88-degree temperatures. However, I’m emphasizing Miz over weather in this one, riding with the NL Cy Young favorite to put up another dominant outing, en route to a lower-scoring game than projected.
The Brewers were once around 57% favorites for this game, but they’ve moved up to 60 cents, as the market is favoring them with Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. Milwaukee has the clear edge on the mound over David Peterson and the Cubs, but it’s a bit too pricey to choose a side here. We’ll go with Under 8.5 instead.
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