The Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) are coming off a 4-3 loss in extra innings against the San Diego Padres. Milwaukee will look to get back on track after getting swept in San Diego. This could be a preview of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers (73-48).
After a brief cold streak, the Dodgers have bounced back, coming off a three-game sweep over the Kansas City Royals. They’ll look to try to win their fourth game in a row in a clash of the two best teams in the National League. Let’s dive into MLB prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Dodgers are priced at 58 cents to win this game because they’re the better team and have home-field advantage. I like the spot for Los Angeles because the Brewers have a taxed bullpen. Brewers’ relievers Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, and Antonio Senzatela all had 15+ pitch outings yesterday, so there’s a chance that they’re unavailable tonight.
Milwaukee is sending out Shane Drohan, who got lit up for six earned runs in five innings vs. the Twins in his last outing. It’s a tough spot for him to bounce back, facing a star-studded Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles is countering with Roki Sasaki, who has turned his season around lately. In his last five starts, Sasaki has a 2.40 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP with a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate in 30 innings.
I’m taking the Dodgers to win at 58 cents for this game. The focus here is a fatigued Brewers bullpen, along with the edge on the mound for the Dodgers. Add in home-field advantage, and you can see why this trade looks appealing. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers have been ice-cold at the plate. In the last 14 days, Milwaukee has an 88 wRC+, which ranks 21st in MLB. With that in mind, we’ll ride with the Dodgers here.
The Brewers are coming off an extra-inning loss, so their bullpen is a bit gassed for this game. High-leverage arms like Trevor Megill may be unavailable.
Milwaukee’s bats are cold right now, combining for only seven runs in their last three games. That’s bad news against Roki Sasaki and a relatively fresh Dodgers’ bullpen.
Dodgers’ star first baseman Freddie Freeman seems to have avoided serious injury after falling into the Royals’ dugout while tracking a foul ball. He’s currently day-to-day with “total body soreness,” so there’s a good chance that he’s out for this game.
When these two teams met from May 23-25, the Dodgers took two of three games on the road in Milwaukee.
The Dodgers opened as 54.5% favorites for this game, but they’ve moved to 58 cents due to a fatigued Brewers’ bullpen, home-field advantage, and Roki Sasaki’s improvements on the mound. Add in the fact that Shane Drohan is coming off a poor outing, and the movement in the Dodgers’ favor makes a lot of sense.
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