The Milwaukee Brewers had a dramatic comeback win in the ninth inning over the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series. Jackson Chourio came through with a clutch two-run single to win the game. Milwaukee is now firmly in control of this series with a 2-0 lead. The Padres are facing elimination.
The Brew Crew will try to complete the sweep with a road win, sending out right-hander Dustin May, while the Padres will counter with a righty of their own in Nick Pivetta.
The Padres have the edge on the mound, but let’s look closely at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Padres are priced at 56 cents for this game. This feels like a reasonable price because they’re coming off a pair of one-run losses. With home-field advantage, it’s likely that San Diego can stay alive with a win here. After all, it’s not like they got dominated in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is vulnerable here with Dustin May on the mound. He’s been deployed as a bulk reliever lately, going three innings or fewer in three straight outings. During this stretch, May has allowed a combined seven earned runs.
With that in mind, choosing a side looks like the right move in this one.
I’m totally fine with paying 56 cents on the Padres to win this game. Not only as May really struggled lately, but Nick Pivetta has also been quite effective. Since returning from injury on September 7th, the veteran righty has given up a combined four earned runs in 21.2 innings.
While neither starter is going to go deep in this game, both bullpens are completely fresh after these teams had the day off on Monday.
However, with the Padres having the edge on the mound, in the bullpen, and with home-field, they’re worth buying into at 56 cents. Remember, San Diego came into the postseason as the hottest team in MLB. It feels unlikely that they’ll be swept in this one.
After all, this team has shown resiliency all year long. I’m predicting they can bounce back from such a gut-wrenching loss in Game 2.
The Padres’ price has fluctuated from 54 to 56 cents in the last 24 hours leading up to game time. With May struggling and Pivetta in good form right now, it’s not surprising to see the market move this price in San Diego’s direction. The total has remained at 7.5 runs, priced at 54 cents for the Under, which is reasonable because both bullpens are completely fresh.
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