The Cleveland Guardians stayed hot at the plate, winning Game 1 of the ALCS 7-3 after the bats came alive late in the game. This team has now won four in a row after overcoming a 2-0 series deficit vs. the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS. During this stretch, the Guardians have scored 7+ runs in three of four games.
On the other side, the Tampa Bay Rays are in a tough spot here, needing to win this game to avoid a 2-0 series deficit with the next three matchups on the road. Tampa had a 2-1 lead heading into the seventh inning before the Guardians’ bats took over the game.
The Guardians have the edge on the mound with, but there’s still value to be had at MLB prediction markets here, so let’s dive in.
The Rays are priced at 57 cents at the best prediction market sites for this game. This feels a bit expensive even in a must-win situation with home-field advantage. That’s because the Guardians are sending out Parker Messick, who had a phenomenal rookie season, putting up a 2.56 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 186.1 innings.
However, it’s clear that the market is reacting to Messick’s struggles in the postseason. The young lefty has given up a combined four earned runs in only 6.2 innings in two starts so far. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta continues to shine, allowing one earned run or fewer in seven consecutive starts.
Despite the relatively expensive price on the Rays here, I’m willing to ride with them at 57 cents. Tampa was my pick to win this series from the beginning, so I’m going to take them in a must-win game.
With the way they seem to have fixed Peralta, who came over to the team at the trade deadline, you have to feel confident with him in a home outing. Remember, the Rays were dominant at home all year long, putting up a 55-26 record.
With the total at only 6.5 runs, that feels too low given how well the Guardians are swinging the bat. To that end, I’ll take the Rays to get it done in a must-win game.
The Rays were as high as 62 cents at 9 pm ET on Oct. 12, but that price has shifted to 57 cents at the time of this article. The movement towards the Guardians reflects market confidence in how red-hot they’ve been at the plate. But with Freddy Peralta on a nice run for the Rays, this could be a game where the Guardians cool down on offense.
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