The Tampa Bay Rays will try to wrap up the ALCS and head to the World Series as they head into Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead over the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays have gotten some great pitching in the last two games, highlighted by Drew Rasmussen, who allowed only one run in seven innings in Game 5.
On the other side, the Guardians are in a tough spot. They’re going with Shawn Armstrong as the opener. Their ace, Gavin Williams, is unavailable for this game. Parker Messick just pitched yesterday, so he won’t be used either. In other words, Cleveland will have to rely on their relievers to help them win here.
With that in mind, let’s dive into prediction markets to see where the best trades are for this pivotal matchup.
The Rays are priced at 58 cents to win this game. This makes sense due to the Guardians’ pitching concerns, along with the fact that the Rays have home-field advantage. On top of that, Rays’ starter Freddy Peralta has been on a terrific run lately.
Peralta has given up one earned run or fewer in nine consecutive outings. However, he pitched in relief in Game 4, so he’s only on one day of rest for this game, meaning it’ll likely be a shorter outing.
WIth that said, after Rasmussen went seven innings yesterday, the Rays have a completely fresh bullpen, so they’re in a good spot here.
Considering how much of an edge the Rays have at starting pitching and in the bullpen, I’m going with Tampa to win at 58 cents. They’ve been a dominant team at home all year, going 55-26 on the season.
With no Gavin Williams available, it feels like the Guardians are running out of steam here. Remember, they had to overcome a 2-0 series deficit against the White Sox in the ALDS. It took a lot for them to get here, and you can just feel the Rays taking over this series.
Despite a relatively high price, taking the Rays at 58 cents feels like the prudent play.
In looking at MLB prediction markets, we see that there has been limited movement on this Guardians vs Rays game so far. The Rays were 57 cents earlier this morning, but that price has moved marginally to 59 cents. I’m riding with the Rays because they have the edge on the mound along with home-field advantage.
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