The October MLB postseason has not disappointed, as the country’s top prediction markets adjust contract prices based on a potential Dodgers defeat in the National League Championship Series.
The National League and the American League pennant races have been in stark contrast so far. Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers need a home win against the Milwaukee Brewers to avoid a sweep and stay alive for a chance at a World Series three-peat. The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians are deadlocked at one game apiece in the ALCS.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on course to reverse the outcome of their disappointing sweep loss to the Dodgers during last year’s postseason. The team has never won a World Series championship, but will appear in its second-ever World Series (1982) with a win tonight.
With more than $9 million already traded, the Kalshi MLB prediction market has Milwaukee listed at 91¢ per contract to advance. In our view, that price represents an absolute bargain given that the Brewers will have to lose four straight games for the “yes” options not to pay out.
The Dodgers are in an identity crisis, failing to hit a single home run in their first three games against Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series (NLCS). Tyler Glasnow will start tonight for Los Angeles. The game is scheduled to be televised on Fox Sports starting at 5:00 p.m. local time. If Los Angeles wins tonight, the two teams will play another game at Dodger Stadium on Friday.
While we think the Dodgers are capable of winning a game or two against the Brewers to make it a competitive series, we can’t ignore the 91¢ price on the chances that Milwaukee will win at least one of its next four games.
The Tampa Bay Rays may have lost home-field advantage in Game 1 of the ALCS, but they’re still favored to advance to the World Series, according to Kalshi sports forecasters. This market’s total volume has surpassed $10 million, and the Rays have a contract price of 56¢ to win and move on to professional baseball’s most-watched spectacle.
This afternoon, the Rays will be at Progressive Field in Cleveland to take on the Guardians. The game will be broadcast live on TBS and has purposefully been moved up to an early afternoon slot to beat the rainy weather that’s expected to hit Cleveland before this evening.
Prediction markets will pivot significantly depending on which team wins Game 3 of the ALCS. Forecasters who are convinced of a team’s chances to make the World Series will want to lock in their picks before Game 3 is played due to the increased contract prices that the winning team will demand.
The ALCS is guaranteed to go at least five games. Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will both be played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. As long as Tampa Bay wins one of its next three games in Cleveland, it will technically regain home-field advantage.
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