The Philadelphia Phillies (82-65) still have a chance to catch the Atlanta Braves (86-61) for the NL East division lead. The two teams are set to go at it for a three-game series, with the Phillies four games back of the Braves. While it’ll be tough to make up ground, it’s not insurmountable, especially if the Phillies complete the sweep.
The Phillies have gone 2-3 in their last five games, while the Braves have lost three of their last four. Atlanta’s bats are ice-cold right now, scoring three runs or fewer in four consecutive games. With that in mind, let’s dive into MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Braves are priced at 63 cents to win this game, which makes a lot of sense. Not only are they the better team with home field advantage, but they’re sending out their ace in Chris Sale for this one. The veteran left-hander has been dominant this year, putting up a 2.10 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 150 innings.
The Phillies are countering with Aaron Nola, who has a 4.76 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this year. While those numbers are underwhelming, Nola has been excellent of late, allowing two runs or fewer in six consecutive games. During this stretch, he’s held opponents to only one run on four occasions.
That’s why I’m not willing to pay a heavy price on the Braves to win, despite Sale being on the mound. With Nola in a nice rhythm right now, there’s more value on riding with Under 7.5 runs at 56 cents.
When you consider that the Braves have ice-cold bats and that Nola has limited opposing offenses to a combined six runs in his last six starts, it’s reasonable to project a low-scoring game here.
This is especially the case when you look at what Sale has done lately, allowing a combined five earned runs in his last four starts. This includes a complete game shutout against the Dodgers on August 27th.
With that in mind, there’s a good chance that this game is a pitcher’s duel, so ride with Under 7.5 here.
The Braves were priced at 60 cents early on Friday morning, but that’s moved to 63 cents, as traders are clearly buying into Chris Sale. But with Aaron Nola pitching well, this feels a bit too expensive. The sharper play looks like buying into the Under 7.5 runs, as this should be a pitcher’s duel.
Loading …
