The Tampa Bay Rays (96-62) have already clinched the AL East, so they have nothing to play for in this matchup against the New York Yankees (91-67). Tampa is merely playing out the season as they get ready for the playoffs.
The same goes for the Yankees, who are entrenched in their spot as the top wild card seed in the AL. However, Cam Schlittler is on the mound. He’s already locked up AL Cy Young, but there’s an outside chance that he contend for AL MVP votes. This is especially true if the Astros end up missing the playoffs, making it harder for Yordan Alvarez to win.
To that end, Schlittler is motivated to have another dominant outing. With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to find value on this game.
The Yankees are priced at 59 cents to win this game. They have the significant edge on the mound with Cam Schlittler, who has been the clear-cut second-best pitcher in MLB behind Jacob Misiorowski. Ian Seymour has been good for the Rays, but he’s no Schlittler.
Even though both teams have nothing to play for, the Yankees are more likely to get it done in front of a home crowd with their Cy Young pitcher on the mound.
I’m targeting the Yankees to win at 59 cents. While it’s an expensive price to pay given that the Rays are the better team, this is a bet on the pitching advantage. Cam Schlittler has been on quite the roll, allowing one earned run in each of his last eight outings.
When Schlittler last faced the Rays on July 6th, he went eight innings, allowing one earned run with zero walks and eight strikeouts.
On the other side, Ian Seymour has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. We saw the Yankees put up three earned runs in 5.1 innings against him back on July 7th, although he had 12 strikeouts in that game.
I’ll buy into the Yankees winning here with the edge on the mound and the fact that the Rays already clinched the AL East.
There hasn’t been much market movement for this game, as the Yankees have remained 57-58 cent favorites throughout the last 24 hours. There’s still value in this price, as there’s a bit more on the line for the Yankees, with Schlittler aiming to finish off his spectacular season on a high note.
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