The Chicago White Sox (59-53) are coming off a 14-2 loss in the series opener, where Davis Martin got rocked for nine earned runs. They’ll look to get back on track with their best pitcher on the mound, Sean Burke.
The Boston Red Sox (61-51) are the hottest team in baseball right now, going 24-3 in their last 27 games. They’ll try to keep it rolling with Sonny Gray on the mound. This could be a potential matchup in this year’s playoffs, so let’s take a look at MLB prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Red Sox are priced at 54 cents to win this game because they’re the better team, currently in top form, and with home-field advantage. However, I’d tread lightly there because the White Sox have a red-hot pitcher on the mound.
Sean Burke has an impressive 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 140 strikeouts in 124.1 innings. In his last seven starts, Burke has been dominant, putting up a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP with a 34.9% strikeout rate. Simply put, he’s pitching like an ace right now.
The good news for the Red Sox is that Sonny Gray has similarly been highly effective, registering a 2.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with 98 strikeouts in 113.2 innings. However, he’s struggled a bit in his last two outings, allowing a combined nine earned runs in 12 innings.
I’m taking Under 8.5 at 50 cents for the White Sox vs Red Sox game. This is a bet on Burke, who is pitching like one of the best in baseball right now. I know that Gray has struggled recently, but we’ve seen him allow one earned run or fewer in five of his last seven outings. Look for Burke to continue pitching well and Gray to bounce back en route to a pitcher’s duel between the White Sox and Red Sox.
The White Sox acquired starting pitcher Luis Castillo, relief pitcher Huascar Brazoban, outfielder Brenton Doyle, and catcher Joey Bart at the trade deadline. These were low-key moves with a goal of improving the roster without draining their farm system.
The Red Sox picked up catcher Adley Rutschman and relief pitcher Erik Miller as their main additions at the trade deadline. Rutschman fills a major hole, while Miller provides another option out of the bullpen in high-leverage situations.
Boston got some good news on Tuesday, as ace Garrett Crochet has started throwing from 50-to-60 feet on flat ground. He’s been out since April 25th with a lat/shoulder injury. If Crochet can get back in time for the playoffs, this team would be even more dangerous.
The Red Sox opened as 59% favorites for this game, which isn’t surprising considering how well they’ve been playing. But the market has moved towards the White Sox, with traders looking to find value with ace Sean Burke on the mound. The Red Sox price continues to drop, now at 53%. It’s unlikely that the White Sox will be favorites in this game because they’re on the road, so this is likely the lowest the price will move.
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