The Milwaukee Brewers were three outs away from completing the sweep and winning the 2026 World Series, holding a one-run lead heading into the bottom of the 12th. But the Rays showed that they’re a resilient bunch, stringing together a few hits to complete the comeback and avoid elimination.
But Tampa is in a tough spot in Game 5, as they’re going up against the best pitcher in baseball, Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers also have a fresher bullpen, having gotten better production and deeper outings from their starting pitchers in this series.
With that in mind, let’s dive into prediction markets to see where the best trades are for Game 5.
The Brewers are priced at about 60 cents to win this game. This makes sense because they’ve been the better team throughout the series, and will now send out their ace, Jacob Misiorowski.
Meanwhile, the Rays haven’t even confirmed their starter yet. It’s likely to be Drew Rasmussen, but he’s on three days’ rest, so he won’t be doing deep in this game.
The total comes in at 6.5 runs, with the Over favored at 53 cents. The reason why it’s 6.5 compared to 7.5 from the last two games is merely due to Misiorowski’s ability to completely take over a game.
I’m going with the Brewers to win this game at 60 cents. The Rays’ bats have been cold throughout the series, so facing an ace like Jacob Misiorowski is a nightmare matchup for them. On top of that, their best hitter, Junior Caminero, is dealing with a foot injury. While he’s expected to play, that could hinder his performance at the plate.
We also have to acknowledge that Drew Rasmussen may not be as effective on three days’ rest, nor will he pitch deep in this game. With the Rays having used their closer Bryan Baker for two innings yesterday, that takes away one of their best relievers.
As such, not only do the Rays have a disadvantage in starting pitching, but also in the bullpen. Not to mention that the Brewers have been the vastly superior offense throughout this series. With home-field advantage the only edge on the Rays’ side, I’m buying into the Brewers to win at 60 cents.
When taking a look at MLB prediction markets, we see that there has been limited movement so far. The Brewers have remained around 60-cent favorites to win this game, which looks like a reasonable price considering their edge on the mound. It looks like the ideal spot for the Brewers to win the World Series here.
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