With the 2026 US midterm elections now less than 60 days away, Kalshi has upped the ante on its political prediction markets. Long gone are the days when traders had to manually search for each market.
With just a single touch of a mobile device screen, forecasters can access the Kalshi Politics Hub and go straight to the most popular markets. With that in mind, here is the current list of the top 5 most competitive midterm election markets on Kalshi.
Election forecasters are evenly split over which party will find itself in control of the US Senate once new members are sworn in. Earlier this year, the trends were clearly favoring the Republicans, but their contract prices have fallen to just 53¢ in recent weeks.
That means the GOP is still technically “favored” to retain control (mainly because a 50-50 tie will go to the Republicans due to the vice-presidential tiebreaker). However, contracts on the Democratic Party wresting Senate control away from the party that’s currently in power are going for 48¢ on Kalshi.
As of early September, this Kalshi market has more than $11.5 million in total trading volume. Look for that to go well above $100 million by the time November 3rd arrives.
Earlier this year, Texas Senator John Cornyn was all but guaranteed to keep this seat “red,” but then President Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, who wound up defeating Cornyn in the Republican primary election.
Now, the race between Paxton and Democratic hopeful James Talarico is neck and neck. The current Texas attorney general’s contract prices are available for 51¢ each, while Talarico’s contracts can be purchased for 49¢ apiece.
Many political observers believe that this race will single-handedly determine which party ultimately controls the US Senate in January 2027 and beyond. There’s $10.7 million in notional volume already riding on this market.
This market is likewise designated as a “toss-up” by Kalshi, with Sherrod Brown’s contracts for a Democratic winner published at 54¢ with less than two months remaining before the November 3rd midterms. While Brown remains the favorite, Republican Don Husted isn’t far behind and is trading at 47¢ per contract.
Overall, this market has attracted more than $2.6 million in total trading volume. With that said, volume is likely to surge well over $10 million between now and the end of October. This is another key Senate race that could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress.
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed has brought the Democratic Party into the limelight this year. His stock continues to rise after he narrowly survived a primary election against Haley Stevens. Now, he’s facing off against Republican Mike Rogers in a race that many observers believe will be won by Democrats.
El-Sayed’s contracts are trading at 63¢ on Kalshi, meaning that he’s a slight favorite. However, this market could drastically swing either way depending on any “breaking news” stories that occur between now and the midterm elections. Look for the $1.7 million in total trading volume figure to increase exponentially over the course of the next few weeks.
The Democrats are heavily favored to regain control of the House of Representatives this November. However, the precise combination (whether Democratic House control will also combine with Democratic control of the Senate) is a highly contested market on Kalshi right now.
The “DEM-House + DEM Senate” market is trading at 48¢ per contract. The next option is for a “DEM-House + REP-Senate,” which isn’t that far behind at 39¢. The pricing for this market slightly contradicts the trends we see from the overall “Senate control” market. Trading volume for this combo market is around $11.5 million.
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