The Boston Celtics are off to a tremendous start in Year 1 of the post-Jaylen Brown era, winning eight of their first 10 games. Jayson Tatum has been phenomenal as the go-to superstar, averaging 27.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists. The C’s have won three in a row, fresh off a 117-97 blowout over the Bucks.
The same goes for the Philadelphia 76ers, who have adjusted perfectly to significant roster turnover after bringing in Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. The Sixers have won nine of their first 11 games, including a six-point road victory vs. the Bulls on Nov. 8.
Despite playing at home, the best prediction markets view the 76ers as underdogs in this spot. Let’s take a closer look to find out if we can find value there.
The Celtics are priced at 52 cents to win this game. The point spread is Celtics -1.5, priced at 51 cents. The main question I have here is, why are the Celtics favored on the road? The Sixers are similarly atop the Eastern Conference, so there’s not that much of a disparity in talent.
The total comes in at 217.5 points, which makes more sense because these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
I’m going to stay away from choosing a side here because I think this game can go either way. The market clearly is indicating that it views the Celtics as the better team, especially with Jayson Tatum playing at such a high level. With that said, I can’t back them as road favorites against a very good Sixers squad.
Instead, I’m going with Under 217.5 points at NBA prediction markets, which you can get at 50 cents. I already mentioned how these are two elite defensive teams. The Celtics are 4th in Defensive Rating, while the 76ers are 6th. On top of that, the Celtics prefer to slow down the game, ranking 29th in Pace, while the Sixers are 15th in that category.
So, here we have a matchup that projects to be close, featuring two elite defensive teams that prefer to operate their offenses at a slow tempo. That’s an ideal game environment for an Under, so we’ll buy into it at Under 217.5 points. The number is this low for good reason.
There hasn’t been much market movement on the Celtics vs. 76ers game. Boston has hovered around 50-51-cent favorites for the most part. I think there is some slight value on Philadelphia there, especially with them being at home and 9-2 on the season. But the prudent play is to just ride with the Under, given the strength of each of these defenses.
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