
The Atlanta Dream will try to even up the series after losing 68-64 against the Golden State Valkyries in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. The game will tip off at 8 p.m. ET at Chase Center.
The Dream came into the fourth quarter with a 56-51 lead before getting out-scored 17-8 in the final frame. Valkyriies’ forward Gabby Williams led the way with 26 points. Both defenses were excellent, as the teams combined for only 51 points in the second half.
Given how close Game 1 was, we’re likely to get another intriguing game, so let’s dive into the best prediction markets to find the best prices for this WNBA Finals matchup.
The Valkyries are priced at 55 cents to win this game. The point spread is Valkyries -1.5, which comes in at 53 cents. The total is listed at 152.5 points, with the Over at 51 cents. That feels like a high number considering that these two teams combined for only 132 points in Game 1.
Given how close Game 1 was, I’m looking at the total as the best trade for this game.
I’m going with Under 152.5 points at 50 cents. These are the two best defensive teams in the WNBA, with the Dream 2nd and the Valkyries 1st in Defensive Rating.
Each side showed their defensive ability in Game 1, particularly in the second half, where there were only 51 points. To that end, I don’t think that the market is baking in enough of these defensive skills into the total, which feels way too high.
So far this year, including the regular season, these teams have combined for 143, 153, 175, and 132 points. Given that it’s an intense game in the WNBA Finals, I once again expect a lower-scoring game than usual, so we’ll buy into Under 152.5 here.
When taking a look at prediction markets apps, we see that the Valkyries were as high as 61% favorites back on Oct. 17, but the market has moved towards the Dream, as Golden State is now 55 cents. This doesn’t surprise me when you consider how close Game 1 was. Plus, the Dream had been one of the hottest teams in the WNBA heading into that matchup. But I prefer avoiding choosing a side, instead going with the Under here.
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