The Portland Fire (15-23) have lost three in a row, including a 96-78 blowout against the Dallas Wings in their last game. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA, coming in at 14th in Defensive Rating. They’re in a tough spot on the road here.
The Atlanta Dream (25-13) have won four in a row and seven of their last 10 games. We just saw them go 4-0 on a road trip. Now, they’re set for an exploitable matchup vs. the Fire at home, where they have a 12-6 record. This could be a lopsided matchup, so let’s dive into prediction market apps to find value.
The Dream are priced at 86 cents to win this game. This is despite the fact that when these teams last met on July 11th, Portland won 102-92. However, the Fire are in much worse form right now, while the Dream are rolling, so this line makes some sense. Atlanta is 3rd in Defensive Rating, so it could be tough for the Fire to score much here, as they’re 9th in Offensive Rating.
We’ve seen the Fire allow 96+ points in back-to-back games, while the Dream have scored 97+ points in three of their last four. To that end, we could see center Angel Reese have a big game. We just saw her drop 31 points and 14 rebounds vs. the Mercury on August 22nd.
With that in mind, the question in this game feels not whether the Dream will win, but by how many points.
With that said, I’m not going to take the Dream to win outright at 86 cents. Instead, I’ll look for more value by targeting the Dream to win by over 12.5 points, where I only have to pay 50 cents. I’ll save 36 cents there to target the much better team.
It’s also worth noting that the Dream are more well-rested for this game, having had three days off, while the Fire are on two days’ rest.
With that in mind, back the Dream -3.5 in this spot.
There hasn’t been much movement in this game. The Dream have remained heavy favorites leading up to game time, hovering between 86-87%. This isn’t surprising considering how much the Fire have been struggling lately, along with the Dream’s strong recent form. I’d rather get a bit more return on investment, which is why I’m riding with Dream -12.5 here.
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