The Denver Nuggets have won five of their first eight games to start the season. Superstar big man Nikola Jokic is off to yet another impressive start, averaging 22.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. The Nuggets have won two in a row, knocking off the Pacers and Raptors in their last two games.
Denver will head to Houston to take on a Rockets team that is off to a 7-3 start, but currently on a two-game losing streak, coming off two close losses vs. the Suns and Timberwolves. The Rockets will look to get back on track in this exploitable matchup at home, since the Nuggets likely won’t be as formidable as usual tonight.
We’ll head to the best prediction markets to dive into why the Rockets have an edge in tonight’s clash between a pair of Western Conference juggernauts.
The Rockets are priced at 75 cents to win this game. The point spread is Rockets -9.5, priced at 48 cents. At first glance, you question why this would be the case. Sure, the Rockets have home-court advantage, but these are two comparable teams where a blowout is typically unlikely. However, the Nuggets have injury concerns in this one.
That’s also why we see the Over/Under listed at only 218.5 points, with the Over priced at 53 cents. That’s a low bar for a pair of teams that can light up the scoreboard. For context, both teams rank in the top-13 in points per game.
I’m going with the Rockets to win by over 9.5 points at 48 cents. This is a big number, but it makes sense. That’s because both Nikola Jokic (elbow) and Jamal Murray (leg) are questionable for this game. There’s a legitimate chance that both players don’t end up playing in this one, which is why the market has this at such a high number.
Without Jokic and Murray, it’s going to be tough for the Nuggets to keep it close, especially against such a well-balanced Rockets team in a road game. The Rockets are currently 3rd in Offensive Rating and 9th in Defensive Rating, so they’ve been able to make an impact at both ends of the floor.
We’ve also seen the Rockets win by 10+ points in five of their seven victories this season, so they’ve proven to be able to run up large margins of victory. With that in mind, we’ll buy into the Rockets -9.5 as our favorite trade at NBA prediction markets tonight.
There has been considerable market movement in Nuggets vs. Rockets. Houston was 62% favorites on Nov. 8 at 3 p.m. ET. However, that’s moved to 75% as of No. 9 at 11 a.m. ET. This significant movement signals heavy risk that both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will miss tonight’s game. That makes buying into the Rockets look like the prudent move.
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