The Decision Part Two is nearing its end, as LeBron James is expected to pick his next team soon. A few weeks back, the NBA superstar’s choices seemed to have been whittled down to three teams: the Miami Heat, Golden State Warriors, and Cleveland Cavaliers. James’ main suitors remain the same, though the Philadelphia 76ers have entered the fight as an outside contender.
There have also been major fluctuations as prediction markets react to all the rumors, speculation, and gossip surrounding what will likely be “The King’s” final destination in his legendary NBA career. Kalshi trading volume on this market sailed past $20 million at the start of July and hasn’t let up since, hitting over $124 million at the time of writing.
Cleveland and Golden State have both spent time as the heavy favorite at Kalshi to land James, only to trend back into almost a coin flip. The Cavaliers spiked to nearly 58% on July 10, while the Warriors dropped to just over 13% and fell behind the Heat, suggesting James was likely headed back home for a third time.
Golden State had previously reached nearly 49% after becoming the logical fit for James after Draymond Green declined his $27.7-million player option to help give the team the flexibility to bring in the 41-year-old. Not to mention, few things spark the basketball imagination more than James finally linking up with Steph Curry.
But with James widely presumed to be nearing a decision, the Warriors have bounced back to within touching distance of the Cavaliers. Cleveland remains the favorite at 37%, but Golden State sits just behind at 32%. This market movement comes despite a Wednesday report from ESPN reporter Shams Charania that James has narrowed his choices down to Miami, Cleveland, and Philadelphia.
The Warriors’ chances may have been bolstered by comments by general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., who said on July 14 that his team was “close to finalizing the roster.” James and Green have also recently vacationed together in Puerto Rico.
Meanwhile, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr also got tongues wagging by telling Warriors fans who were asking about signing James, “Oh, we got him.” Kerr is notorious for relying on his humor to bat away questions, but his comments still might’ve been taken seriously by some.
The entire NBA is waiting – again – on James to make his decision. Even at 41 years old, James can still bend the league to his will. But when is he expected to announce his decision? While nothing is official, some are speculating it could come this week as James is set for several public appearances in New York.
James will be at Fanatics Fest in New York on Thursday and Friday for live tapings of his podcast “Mind the Game” and talk show “The Shop,” respectively. He will also attend the Time 100 gala on Thursday, where he’ll be honored as the “Athlete of the Century.”
Again, neither James nor any reporters have said he’ll announce his decision at these appearances. Moreover, the Kalshi market for when James decides indicates we might have a little longer to wait to find out. An announcement coming “Before July 19, 2026” hit nearly 77%, but has fallen to just under 38%, while “Before July 26, 2026” spiked from 67% to an 84% chance on Thursday.
ESPN reporter Dave McMenamin, who has closely followed James’ career, backed this up Wednesday, saying that he’s “been given no indication” that the star player will make the announcement during his public appearances in New York.
So, while it seems either another homecoming in Cleveland or a much-anticipated team-up with Curry are the most likely outcomes, James’ future will remain uncertain for a little longer yet.
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