The New York Knicks have been nothing short of outstanding in the first two games of the 2025-26 NBA Finals. Despite their underdog status going into the championship series, they’ve managed to win both games in San Antonio, and now head to Madison Square Garden for Game 3 on Monday night.
For the Spurs, their two late-fourth quarter letdowns have convinced traders on Kalshi that they can no longer be considered the favorite to win the series – or even Game 3. Madison Square Garden will be lit Monday night as the Knicks look to take a 3-0 lead in the NBA Finals against San Antonio.
The New York Knicks are listed at 54¢ per contract to win Game 3 outright, and – just like the bulk of Kalshi traders – we’ve been convinced that San Antonio lacks the experience necessary to win tonight in front of what promises to be a raucous Knicks home crowd. Yes, the Spurs were even with New York until the final two minutes of Game 1. Yes, San Antonio issued a buzzer-beater to win Game 2, but the final results are all that count.
The series MVP market is now packed with intrigue due to the stellar performance of Karl-Anthony Towns. While we feel that Towns is overpriced at 38% due to New York’s tendency to feed Brunson the ball, we no longer doubt that a member of the Knicks will receive the MVP award at the conclusion of this year’s championship.
We like Jalen Brunson for MVP at 45¢ per contract on prediction market apps. If New York is victorious tonight, they’ll have a shot at sweeping the upstart Spurs on Wednesday.
The cheapest Madison Square Garden balcony seats we found available on Monday morning were listed at over $10,000 (including fees) on SeatGeek. By this afternoon Eastern Time, the most expensive front row midcourt seats could be valued at over half a million dollars on the resale market. New York has (not-so) patiently waited for a potential NBA champion since 1999, and the local faithful are sure to put up a united front once the action tips-off tonight at 8:30 Eastern.
On the opposite end, San Antonio must win tonight to stave-off the threat of being swept out of the Finals after taking care of the defending champion OKC Thunder last month. The Spurs have lost the first two games of the series thanks to miscues that occurred with less than 2:00 remaining in Game 1; and less than 20 seconds left on the clock in Game 2. San Antonio must fix that. Tonight.
Unsurprisingly, Victor Wembanyama as NBA Finals MVP has dropped all the way down to 20¢ due to the Spurs existing 0-2 series deficit and the MVP “make-or-break” buzzer beater that the 7’4” center missed at the end of Game 2. A contract purchase for Wembanyama is a prediction that San Antonio will take four out of the next five games; three of which would have to be played in New York.
The New York Knicks have gone from 2-to-1 underdogs to 77% favorites by virtue of their first two victories. That price will seem steep only if New York is unable to capture a commanding 3-0 series lead tonight. If the Knicks win, their odds to win the series are likely to escalate beyond 80 cents per contract.
Game 3 of the 2025-26 NBA Finals tips-off tonight at 8:30 Eastern Time from Madison Square Garden. You can watch the action live on ABC, or stream the game using a premium YouTubeTV subscription.
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