The Golden State Valkyries (27-11) have won eight of their last 10 games. We just saw them blow out the Connecticut Sun in an 89-64 blowout last night. However, given that this is the second of a back-to-back with FIBA coming up, we could see reduced minutes from some of their key players.
Up next is a road game against the New York Liberty (23-15), who have won seven of their last 10 games, including a 109-102 win vs. the Indiana Fever on August 22nd. With four days of rest, the Liberty are fresh for this game, so let’s take a look at prediction market apps to find value.
The Liberty are priced at 58 cents to win this game. At first glance, this could feel surprising, considering the Valkyries have a much better record. When these teams met on June 28th, Golden State won 76-67, adding further initial doubt to the Liberty as favorites. However, digging a bit deeper, we can see why the Valkyries are underdogs.
Aside from the Liberty having homecourt advantage, there’s a key factor here. Gabby Williams, Cecilia Zandalasini, and Janelle Salaun are leaving the team to play for USA at FIBA. While they’re expected to play in this game, given that it’s the second of a back-to-back with a big tournament coming up, that could mean reduced minutes.
While the Liberty will lose Breanna Stewart, she’s not going to miss this game. Given that the Liberty are well-rested, we shouldn’t expect a reduced workload, either.
With that said, I’m not going to take the Liberty to win outright at 58 cents. Instead, I’ll look for more value by targeting the Liberty to win by over 3.5 points, where I only have to pay 47 cents. I’ll save 11 cents there to exploit a well-rested team vs. a side dealing with fatigue.
I always like to target a team on 4+ days rest vs. a team playing the second of a back-to-back, as we have here with the Liberty vs. Valkyries.
With that in mind, back the Liberty -3.5 in this spot.
Early Thursday morning, the Liberty were priced at 60%, but it’s moved down to 58 cents. Perhaps the market is pulling back on an initial overreaction to the narrative of a fatigued Valkyries team vs. a well-rested Liberty side. With that said, I still give the edge to the Liberty in this spot, especially since the Valkyries may reduce minutes for some of their key players in preparation for FIBA.
Loading …
