Registered Democrats in New York will head to the polls tomorrow to choose a new House of Representatives nominee to replace 17-term congressman Jerry Nadler, who is retiring following half a century in public office. As tomorrow’s election doesn’t allow for a run-off, the “winners” market on prediction markets will be resolved once the final vote count has been recorded.
There is no “second place” or “ranked voting” mechanism that could result in more than one Democratic candidate advancing. Whoever captures the top spot tomorrow will go on to face Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle in the November general election (even if neither candidate garners 50% or more of the total primary vote).
We’re going with Kalshi forecasters on this one. New York Assemblymember Micah Lasher has all the right endorsements to secure a victory tomorrow. We also believe he’ll receive more than 50% of the vote despite being locked in a competitive race against fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores.
Lasher’s experience as a policy director under Governor Kathy Hochul, coupled with his tenure serving under former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, makes the NYU sociology graduate the clear favorite in tomorrow’s primary election.
Alex Bores may be a “tech nerd,” but his campaign rhetoric involving crypto and AI regulation is likely to fall on deaf ears as far as younger voters are concerned. The other major candidate, Jack Schlossberg, is the grandson of President John F. Kennedy, but is polling at less than 2% in the Kalshi winners market.
The regulation of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency is a no-go among young Democratic primary voters (it’s even more of an issue with young Republicans, but they can’t vote in tomorrow’s primary election). Individuals between the ages of 18-25 represent a key demographic and voting bloc, and are increasingly turning to online wallet services such as Coinbase for their main banking operations.
If there were any maneuverable space for Bores to gain a leg up on Lasher ahead of tomorrow’s primary, it would have been joining the side of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding prediction markets and digital assets. However, doing so would have alienated Bores from his own party, since the current CFTC forms part of President Donald Trump’s Republican administration.
Back in early May, Alex Bores was priced at over 50 cents per contract on Kalshi to “win” tomorrow’s Democratic primary election for the 12th Congressional District. That lead was erased entirely once the powerful “Leading the Future” Super PAC got involved.
Backed by corporations including OpenAI, Leading the Future ran a $7 million ad campaign to unseat Bores from his perch as the frontrunner, and the rest is history. Tomorrow’s primary for the Democratic 12th Congressional Nominee will be won by Micah Lasher in our view. Kalshi trading volume on the “winners” market has now exceeded $700,000 and could easily eclipse $1 million by tomorrow night, when polls close.
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