Now that the NFL preseason has officially begun, traders are locking in to the Most Valuable Player markets across prediction market platforms like Kalshi, where trading volume already exceeds $7.2 million.
Carolina’s 33-30 Pro Football Hall of Fame Game victory over Arizona last night has served to “get the juices flowing” for NFL fans around the world, but the regular season is still more than a month away. Because of this, now is a great time to get your pick for the 2026-27 NFL MVP secured, before contract prices make significant moves.
A note for casual NFL fans: this market is stacked with quarterbacks for a very good reason. The last time a non-QB player won the NFL MVP award was way back in 2012, when Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson accomplished the feat.
With that out of the way, we’re really liking how the Kalshi MVP markets are lining up. We’ve got Josh Allen as our frontrunner, too. The player we’re definitely not buying “yes” contracts for is Patrick Mahomes, who lacks both offensive blocking to perform at an ultra-high level in the pocket and the youth to consistently scramble.
We’ve got Josh Allen and Joe Burrow listed as our top two going into the bulk of the NFL preseason. While their prices may seem a bit “elevated” considering neither will take a meaningful snap until the regular season begins, we’re opting to lock in our picks before an inspiring Week 1 performance raises those contract prices further.
Look for the “latest news” items for the eventual NFL MVP to kick into full gear once Week 1 of the regular season has concluded (or before then if there’s an injury to report). For now, the main distinction to glean from the Kalshi NFL MVP markets is how quarterbacks are dominating the category.
Barring a trick play, a time-restricted play, or an obscene shotgun snap, the quarterback is the player who is pretty much “guaranteed” to handle the ball on every down except 4th Down.
For most quarterbacks, the ability to pick up first downs on the ground has become almost as important as “pocket presence,” with pure pocket passers like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees becoming the exception rather than the rule. Today’s top quarterbacks are not only accurate in their passing, they’re also nimble in a way that makes them more likely to be the player who is holding the ball once any given play concludes.
A quick look at the Kalshi graph for which player will win the 2026-27 NFL MVP award shows that the top markets have remained stable since May. Look for this to continue throughout the preseason unless one of the players throws a bunch of first-half interceptions during the team’s third preseason game (which is when starting players are most likely to see the most on-field action before the regular season begins).
Other than that, the only thing that will significantly alter a player’s price between now and early September is a preseason injury, which no one wants to see. There’s considerably more pressure on NFL coaches to keep their star players healthy during the preseason than to actually win games. The 17-game regular season officially begins on September 9th in a Super Bowl LX rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.
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