The Chicago Bears (5-2) have won two in a row and four of their last five, coming off an impressive win over the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. This is a legitimate contender that just acquired stud defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons from the Tennessee Titans.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks (4-3) had an impressive win of their own, knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The defending Super Bowl champions also made some noise on the trade market, acquiring an elite guard in Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts.
There’s a chance that these teams will meet in the playoffs at some point, adding a layer of intrigue to this Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup. We’ll look at the best prediction markets to try to find value here.
The Seahawks are priced at 62 cents to win this game. The point spread is Seahawks -3.5, priced at 48 cents. This isn’t surprising because it’s tough to go into Seattle and beat the defending Super Bowl champions. We saw them blow out an elite Chiefs team last week.
The total comes in at 46.5 points, with the Under slightly favored at 51 cents. This feels a bit high considering how good Seattle’s defense. Add in the fact that the Bears added Jeffery Simmons to their defensive line, and this feels like where the value lies.
I’m going with Under 46.5 at 51 cents. We just saw the Seahawks beat the Chiefs 20-3. They have now allowed a combined 20 points in their last two games. Seattle currently ranks 3rd in EPA vs the pass and 3rd in EPA vs the run.
I know that the Bears have a lot of firepower on offense, but so did the Chiefs, and the Seahawks were able to completely shut them down. We also need to acknowledge that Jeffery Simmons is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL, so adding him to an improving unit could make them one of the top defenses in the league.
In other words, not only will the Bears find it challenging to put up points vs. the Seahawks. Seattle may have a tough time as well. Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Under 46.5 in this spot.
Looking at market movement at NFL prediction markets, we see that the Seahawks have mostly ranged from 60-61% favorites for this game. The spread has remained at -3.5, which is a fair number considering their home-field advantage. There also hasn’t been any movement on the total, which has remained at 46.5 points.
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